NFL Picks: Unearthing the Best Early Value on the Week 10 Odds Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 9, 2015 8:16 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 9, 2015 8:16 PM GMT

The Opening Lines for NFL Week 10 are out, so let’s take a look at some select games where there are lines on the NFL Odds board and see if there’s any early value.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

 

Carolina Panthers -4, 42 vs. Tennessee Titans (FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): QB Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) knocked off the visiting Green Bay Packers, 37-29 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday in Week 9 play, so here against Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) at LP Field in Nashville in Week 10, it will be a shift in a shift in competition talent and site, but for a team which has now beaten the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts and now the Packers back-to-back-to-back-to-back, stuffing the Titans this coming Sunday and putting them in the oven to be ready by Thanksgiving should be no problem. The Panthers are off to their best start ever, have won 11 straight Regular Season games and can smell that Home-field advantage in the NFC after the win over Green Bay and the Cardinals having to play in Seattle this weekend. Newton (15/30, 297, TD; 9 rushes, 57 yards, TD), TE Greg Olsen (4 receptions, 66 yards, TD) and RB Jonathan Stewart (20 rushes, 66 yards, 3.3 ypc) all did what they had to on Sunday but the narrative this team just has those three and makes work like a patchwork quilt are tired as WRs Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn Jr. and Michigan Rookie Devin Funchess actually provide a very nice receiving corps and all have stepped up in the absence of the injured Kelvin Benjamin. When these two teams last met, the Titans won outright as 3-point underdogs on the NFL odds board Charlotte, 30-3 in 2011 while in the last meeting here in Opryland, Tennessee also won and covered, getting a 30-7 Win as 5½-point favorites. The Titans are 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings in this series but even after Sunday’s OT win over the Defenseless Saints in New Orleans, Tennessee is a poor team with a new Head Coach—the Titans fired Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt and promoted Mike Mularkey to interim Head Coach last Tuesday—which has gone 2-6 this year, and went 3-20 SU and 4-18-1 ATS under Whisenhunt. That’s bad.

NFL Pick: Panthers -4 at Pinnacle

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens -6, 48½ (William Hill) (CBS, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore this Sunday afternoon to play the Ravens (2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) in this AFC inter-divisional meeting between two teams unlikely to make the Postseason. Jacksonville and QB Blake Bortles have improved some this season, but still find themselves in the bottom five or six teams in the NFL while Ravens QB and University of Delaware product Joe Flacco and the Ravens will come in well-rested (13 Days) off their Bye Week, as will be host Baltimore who are without veteran WR Steve Smith (Achilles, Injured-Reserve List) who is now out for the season injured. The last time these two met was last season where the Ravens defeated Jacksonville, 2-12 but failed to cover ATS as big 13½-point favorites. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS the L4 overall in this series but the Ravens are 3-1 ATS the L4 games here in Crab City, the lone (ATS) Loss in that aforementioned meeting last year. Baltimore and QB Joe Flacco will be looking to explode on someone after facing an extremely nasty schedule from Weeks 1-8, and with the Jaguars having lost an NFL-high 12 straight Road games to date and going 4-7-1 ATS over that span, these Cats from the Sunshine State may be the perfect team on which to explode. 

NFL Pick: Ravens -5.5 at Heritage

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos -6½, 42 (CG Technology) (CBS, Directv 714, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. EST/1:25 p.m. PST): Thirty-nine-year-old QB Peyton Manning (74-69-2 ATS at Home) and the Denver Broncos (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS ) welcome QB Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 AFC West showdown in the Rocky Mountains and huge game for the visiting Chiefs who will only be losing an hour going from CST to MST and coming in off 13 Days Rest off its Bye week but Kansas City does have to deal with playing the rest of the season without bullworker RB Jamaal Charles (Knee, Injured Reserve). The dominance Denver has shown at Home and the way LB Von Miller, CB Aqib Talib, LB Danny Trevathan (35 Combined Tackles) and LB Brandon Marshall (47 Combined Tackles) and the Broncos Defense has been playing is intimidating although the Colts handed the previously unbeaten Broncos their first Loss on Sunday in Indianapolis in a game where Denver fell behind 17-0 then rallied to tie the game in the 2nd Half before falling to Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and the hosts, 27-24. In that game, Broncos 1st Quarter Unders won for an impressive 8th straight week as the Colts led 7-0 at the end of the first 15 minutes (Total: 7½). In play last season in this Broncos-Chiefs series, Denver won 29-16 failing to cover as 1-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium while in this game in Denver, the Broncos won 24-17 but failed to cover ATS as monster 24-17 chalks. This could be low-scoring  but Denver at or under 7 seems as the smart NFL pick. They will be mad.

NFL Picks: Broncos -6½ & 1st. Quarter Under 7½ at WillHill

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