NFL Picks: Underdog Value on Redskins +3 vs. Rams

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 18, 2015 7:52 PM GMT

We provide you with an Underdog pick that is a blend of statistical analysis that will result in an betting opportunity on a team for whom little love is being shown by the NFL odds.

St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins 1:00 EST
The St Louis Rams travel east to visit the Washington Redskins in this 1 PM eastern kick. Few will be looking to back the Redskins, following their expected 17-10 home loss to Miami last week. Many will be on the St Louis bandwagon after they blew a double digit lead then roared back for a 34-31 OT victory vs the Seattle Seahawks team who had appeared in consecutive Super Bowls. The irony of this selection is that it was these very St Louis Rams who were our “Lone Ranger Game of the Week” last week, just one of our many winners on a Sunday and Monday card that saw us go 13-2 ATS. 

A review of last week’s stats in the Seattle/St Louis game saw that the St Louis victory may have been a bit undeserved. Seattle ran the ball 32 times (an over 80% chance to beat the point spread), and had a 124-76 overland edge (a 75% chance to beat the point spread), combined with a +2 net TO margin, another near 80% chance to beat the point spread. It was a bit mystifying that the Seahawks failed to propel their fourth quarter momentum into an OT victory. Now, the Rams are thrust into the role of being a road favorite on the NFL odds board following a game 1 straight up home dog victory. It rarely happens, and hardly ever works to the benefit of the game 2 road chalk. Considering that St Louis has lost 9 consecutive road games following matchups with Seattle, there is little precedent for them to win today. 

Little was expected from Washington last week. The RGIII scandal and ensuing concussions thrust QB Cousins into the starting role behind an iffy OL. This is the same Cousins who is just 2-8 SU as a starter in the NFL. When the Skins bolted to a 10-0 early lead, contrary players across the nation felt redemption. Though the Dolphins rallied for a 17-10 victory, it was undeserved considering the Skins’ dominance at the point of attack. The Skins ran 37 times to the Dolphins’ 18, a situation that covers 85% of the time, and 8 of 9 times opening week. The yardage edge was 161-74 overland, and 349-256 overall. In other words, these Redskins ain’t as bad as you think

This NFL Pick could be the time for a turnaround from their 6-19 ATS recent run, but only you, me, and the lone ranger will be there. Just like we were last week with St Louis over Seattle. 

NFL Pick: Redskins +3 at Heritage