NFL Picks: Underdog to Hold the Value in Super Bowl XLIX

Jeff Grant

Monday, January 19, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Both New England and Seattle will be led by Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks on Feb. 1, which makes the NFL odds underdog at kickoff the clear pick at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Sharp Performance
After getting out-gained in its previous three games leading up to the 2015 AFC Championship, New England turned it on at the right time in securing a 45-7 blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts as seven-point home favorites, as it won the statistical battle by188 yards.

Patriots signal-caller Tom Brady has compiled a 20-8 SU career record in postseason play, which is important to consider when making your NFL betting picks, as he looks to match his childhood idol Joe Montana in winning his fourth Super Bowl.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS when the betting line is between +3 to -3.

Find Out Which Books Offer the Best Super Bowl Prop Betting Odds For This Year's Big Game.

Fortunate
Seattle scored 21 points in the final 5.5 minutes of play to earn an improbable 28-22 overtime victory over Green Bay as 8.5-point home favorites Sunday, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting odds, while it has gone OVER the total in both of its postseason games.

The Seahawks won’t be intimidated by the Patriots in this matchup, as Russell Wilson has put together a remarkable 10-0 SU record when facing off against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks since being drafted in the third round of the 2012 NFL draft.

It’s also important to note that the former Wisconsin Badgers star has won 36 of 48 regular-season games as a starter since arriving in the Pacific Northwest.

Sports bettors will find that the squad is 17-7 SUATS versus teams with a winning record dating back to the 2012 campaign.

 

Under the Hoody
Brady’s success has a lot to do with being paired up with longtime head coach Bill Belichick, who just became the all-time winningest coach in postseason history with 21 wins in that situation.

An interesting dynamic to this high-profile affair is the fact that New England owner Bob Kraft hired Belichick after firing current Seattle head coach Pete Carroll after a three-year run from 1997-99.

 

Main Storyline 
The entire world was introduced to the Seahawks defense in last year’s 43-8 blowout victory over the Denver Broncos as 1.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl 48, as it held a record-breaking offense to just 306 yards.

Seattle’s stop unit is just as talented this time around, as it ranks first in scoring and total defense, but it did suffer a couple key injuries to Richard Sherman (elbow) and Earl Thomas (shoulder) last time out.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the team receiving points leading up to the opening kickoff on Super Bowl Sunday, as the Patriots covered the number in four of five games as an underdog this season, while the Seahawks landed in that role just once.

Brady has been a moneymaker in that type of role during his entire career, while Wilson has held some sort of lead in every game he’s played dating back to his days at NC State before transferring to Wisconsin.

Free NFL Pick: Underdog at Kickoff