We move ahead to the Week 6 NFL releases from the sportsbooks and I will have a very distinctive flavor this week for sports picks with the way the numbers have seen to fallen.
Bounced back and got lucky with extremely fortunate Pittsburgh touchdown on Monday night, taking me 10-5 against the NFL odds on the season. Changed it up a little this week which you can learn about below.
The present listed betting odds are courtesy of Heritage
Top Dog - Pittsburgh Upends Arizona
Because of circumstance and choices, Arizona will be spending more time in the Eastern Time zone than Pittsburgh this week before their matchup. After playing Detroit, the Cardinals headed over to West Virginia instead of returning home to have less travel issues. The Steelers are back in the Steel City on a shorten week and thrilling win at San Diego.
What I like about Pittsburgh as football handicapper in this nonconference clash is their zone blitz scheme which forces less mobile quarterbacks like Carson Palmer to get rid of the ball faster than they prefer, especially the Cardinals who like throw further down the field.
While sportsbooks have Pittsburgh as the home underdog, since 2004, they are 7-1-1 ATS in that role. Finally, I have a system which states road favorites scoring 27 or more points a game, after leading in their previous contest by 21 or more points at the half, are 4-19 ATS the last decade, which place me for NFL picks on the Steelers.
Top Dog - Miami Live Dog in Tennessee
I think the Miami coaching change will be a real positive for the Dolphins, as reports have Dan Campbell the opposite of droll Joe Philbin and already demanding a different accountability from his players. Tennessee's record might not match the improvement you can see in this team, but they lack the intangibles that comes with the experience of winning and that often shows up late in games hoping to win as opposed to knowing you can finish the job.
In addition, Miami has a very good history as a road underdog when playing out of division at 27-14-2 against the spread when going back to 2005. Look for more emotion, effort and modified game plan from Miami, who wins by a touchdown and is my choice for sports picks.
Top Dog - Carolina Cashes in Coffee Town
Something is amiss with Seattle and Carolina is the team to take advantage of it. The Panthers have won eight consecutive regular season games dating back to last season (5-3 ATS) and last year suffered two setbacks to Seattle. The Seahawks are 2-3 and all three losses have come when owning a fourth quarter leads and it could four except for missed call by referees against Detroit.
The Seattle defense line is not getting the same pressure and CB Cary Williams has been exposed as the weak link in secondary. No clue what the normally sage Seahawks front office was thinking in revamping offensive line, but safe to say Russell Wilson is not thrilled about it.
Carolina has lost five in a row to Seattle (1-4 ATS) and is 13-3 ATS coming off a road game. Plus, consider the calendar for both teams, the Panthers are 25-15 ATS on the October road , while Seattle is 14-27 ATS as favorites this month. Hawks win but by only three.