NFL Picks: Tough Situation for Chiefs vs. Strong Opponent makes Bengals -3.5 our Play

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 6:55 PM GMT

We’re going to examine the upcoming NFL game between Kansas City and Cincinnati. Go inside to read our betting preview and point spread pick.

Red-Hot Bengals host reeling Chiefs
The Bengals (3-0) host the Chiefs (1-2) in an AFC matchup on Sunday. The opening kickoff at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati is slated for 1:00 PM ET. According to current (9/29) NFL betting odds, Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite and the total is either 44.0 or 44.5 depending on which sportsbook you use. These teams have met just once since 2010, that meeting came on 11/18/2012 in Kansas City, and Cincinnati came away with a 28-6 win.

 

Tough Spot for the Visitors
Kansas City has the unenviable task of coming off a Monday night road contest at Green Bay, and on a short turnaround, must travel to Cincinnati and take on the undefeated Bengals. As a matter of fact, their upcoming and previous opponents have a combined record of 6-0 so far in 2015. After suffering a gut wrenching 31-24 home loss two weeks ago against their AFC West arch nemesis Denver, the Chiefs sustained a 38-28 loss at Green Bay this past Monday, and quite frankly it was a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score would suggest. Kansas City has been plagued in those last two losses by a horrible -5 turnover differential.

 

Betting Angle for Teams coming off a Monday Night Game
Any non-division away underdog of 5.5 or less (Chiefs) playing in game 2 through 8 of the season, coming off a Monday night away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 29.0 or less, resulted in that away underdog going 0-10 SU&ATS since 2000. They lost those ten contests by an average of 13.3 points per game.

 

Impressive Start
Cincinnati has not only won their first three games, but they covered on each of those occasions. NFL history has shown that home favorites or underdogs of 9.0 or less, playing in game 4 of the season, and were 3-0 SUATS in their first 3 contests, coming off a game in which they covered by 15.0 or less while scoring 20 points or more, resulted in the home team going 12-1 SU&ATS since 1980. Needless to say, this exact situation clearly favors Cincinnati. In addition, the Bengals are 17-4-1 straight up in their last twenty-two at home, including 16-5-1 ATS. They’ve also gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU & ATS in their last nine as a home underdog or favorite of 5.5 or less. All those games have come under the watchful eye of current head coach Marvin Lewis.

 

Final Analysis
This is a classic example of one team (Chiefs) not living up to their preseason billing, and the other (Bengals) being much better than even the positive predictions would have implied. Of course it’s still very early in the process, but the situation shapes up very nicely for a Bengals cover. One of my NFL picks for Sunday will be indicative of that forecast.

NFL Pick: Play on the Bengals -3.5 (-105) at Heritage