NFL Picks: Top Value in Week 3

Swinging Johnson

Friday, September 25, 2015 5:43 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 5:43 PM UTC

Last week saw our resident handicapper go 2-2 in his NFL picks but he is vowing to do much better as he zeroes in on the NFL odds and looks for a pair of sharp opportunities to cash in Week 3 of the NFL season.

2015 NFL Record (5-3 ATS)
The early edition of my NFL picks was spot on as we cashed with the Washington Redskins who not only covered the number but defeated the St. Louis Rams outright. This was more of a fade on the Rams rather than unshakeable faith in the ‘Skins as St. Louis was coming off a stunning victory over their archrivals the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. We then cashed another underdog that won outright with the New York Jets shocking the Colts 20-7.

But that was the last piece of good news I was going to be able to deliver as my Saturday edition with two more picks both flamed. I was all-in with the Texans as underdogs but that dog didn’t hunt and they bowed 24-17 to the Panthers as 3-point road underdogs. Next up I decided to try my hand at a total and was vexed when the Cowboys and Eagles played a listless four quarters with the combined score coming in well under the 55 total.

Onward and upward loyal readers as I am committed to bringing home the bacon this week in my NFL picks for Week 3.


Total – Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis
The public is going to bet the Steelers like they’re reading Monday’s newspapers because they have staggeringly short-term memories. Pittsburgh hosed the Niners while the Rams lost to the lowly Redskins. What do you need more than that says Joe Q. Public? The problem is that St. Louis was due for a huge letdown after defeating the Seahawks in their opener while Pittsburgh’s offense willed their way to victory over an overwhelmed Niners defense.

However, the Rams boast a solid run stop unit while the Steelers’ defense can’t seem to stop a parked car. That would seem to bode well for St. Louis but I am not taking this Pittsburgh offense lightly which means I see points on both sides of the ball…many, many points. Here are a few numbers for those who dig - well - numbers.

Pittsburgh in non-conference games the over is 8-1 over their last nine.

St. Louis as a home underdog of three points or less over is 4-0.

St. Louis in non-conference games the over is 6-2.

St. Louis in dome games the over is 14-7.

Free NFL Pick: Play over 47 ½ at

Bucs vs. Texans
Square play alert! I can’t help myself with this game because I believe the Texans will ultimately be a playoff participant. Now I want you to stop laughing but when this defense gets in high gear they will be immense. The big question here is whether or not Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer can lead an NFL offense over the long haul. You have to believe that Mallet will look better than he did against Carolina because Tampa Bay just isn’t in the same league defensively as the Panthers to whom Houston lost 24-17 last week on the road.

I don’t see how an unproven rookie QB like Jameis Winston is going to handle the immense pressure he will be getting from a defense like the Texans coupled with an offensive line that is quite frankly not that great. I see the Texans winning this one by two touchdowns or more which means the NFL odds makers have this one all wrong.

Oh, and one more thing. The Bucs are 2-11 ATS against AFC south opponents over their last 13 games.

Free NFL Pick: Play Houston -6 (-120) at

The Woodman’s Corner (2-0 ATS)
The Woodman’s penchant for puppies knows no bounds as he never saw a dog he didn’t like. Last week he cashed with Dallas + 5 ½ over Philadelphia and he needed not one of those points as the Boyz rolled to a 20-10 victory.

And so it is not surprising that he looks to that very same dog in a constellation that has lost its stars. I speak of course about the Dallas Cowboys sans Romo and Bryant. The Woodman sayeth the Cowboys shall roll in Jerry Jones’ rather cavernous playpen over the Falcons.

The Woodman’s official pick is Dallas +1 ½ at

comment here