NFL Picks: Top Value Plays & Betting Trends for Week 4

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 9:31 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 9:31 PM UTC

After a slow start against the NFL odds, with these NFL picks I have bounced back against the sportsbooks the last two weeks at 5-1 ATS and will do my best to continue on the same path.

Recently, I was asked what is the difference between this article and video and the other, called False Favorites and Top Dogs. I cannot disagree, there are similar aspects to both, but the other piece is looking purely at sides and looking at from situational perspective. Here, as an NFL handicapper, I'm looking at the number to maximize the value and look at sides, totals and underdogs to win outright or favorites to cover more easily.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.


Eagles Fly Away from Washington
Philadelphia built a big early lead against New York and did not do much the rest of the way against a strong Jets defense. Besides just winning, I think this allows the Eagles to relax as a team and they start to play their game.

Washington on the other hand is like a ship lost at sea, rudderless and adrift in spite of what coach Jay Gruden keeps telling the media. Gruden is like a bad tout, giving out both sides of the same argument time and again, never seeming to really make up his mind and move forward. Gruden knows his hands are tied with a his quarterback predicament and he needs a running game, but recently has gone away from reliable Alfred Morris because he does not fit in the passing game as well, which oh by the way is ranked 21st in the NFL, thus really not a strength.

It's not like Chip Kelly and the Eagles are worry free but they have a direction, the players believe and they are 15-8 SU in Washington and cover the three by winning by eight for NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Eagles -3 at BetOnline

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Cincinnati Next Team to Expose Kansas City
The season is not a quarter of the way through, yet outside of New England and Green Bay, the most impressive team in football is Cincinnati. The Bengals ate up Oakland, who has won two games since. They beat up San Diego in the trenches on both sides of the ball and facing real adversity twice in the fourth quarter at Baltimore in losing leads, normally docile Cincy scored touchdowns to put away the desperate Ravens.

A case can be made Cincinnati's roster, 1-53, is as good as anyone in the league and it looks like Marvin Lewis has taken the training wheels off Andy Dalton's bike and gave him the keys to drive the offense.

Kansas City finally got a touchdown from a wide receiver, but the Chiefs are far from fluid on offense and with the Bengals pass rushers, Alex Smith could be in trouble again. With K.C. 5-15 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game, excellent value with Cincinnati at -3.5 or -4.

NFL Pick: Bengals -3.5 at Pinnacle

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Vikings and Broncos Total Action
We have actually lost some value from opening line, but still like this position. With names like Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, you would think points would not be hard to come by. Yet after three games, we know Manning is not close to the quarterback he used to be and is getting by on intelligence and guile. Peterson looks in very good form, but he will face the NFL's top defense which also ranks sixth against the rush.

Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer is getting the aggressive up field approach he wants from his front four and the linebackers are making plays all over the field. With Manning even less mobile these days and a running game at 31st in the league, the Vikings rushers will charge like - Clash of Clans - to get to the Denver quarterback.

With the Broncos fourth in points allowed (16.3) and the Vikes fifth (16.7), unless defense scores occur, even the 42.5 is on my radar for value play. (Observation - With opening line 45, the total went to 42 before moving up. Wait to see if it continues to rise before betting). 

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