NFL Picks: Top Profitable Betting Systems for Your Week 13 Plays on Sides & Totals

Doug Upstone

Friday, December 4, 2015 11:41 PM GMT

This week of the NFL football schedule has gotten off to an unbelievable start with Thursday's contest and we move on to the NFL odds from the sportsbooks for this weekend's action.

As football handicapper I spend a lot of time going through statistics to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team, seeking an edge that might stand out for NFL picks. I also review meaningful trends that can tip scale in my favor and focus on systems that are too hard to ignore.

The beauty of systems is they apply to all teams and are not limited by exterior factors. I am certainly not the only person who uses systems to handicap games, but my preference is those with high winning percentages, as long as they meet my requirements for number of contests played. I know plenty of handicappers who use systems which have a much larger volume of plays, but a lower winning percentage, which yield excellent ROI (return on investment). This is just not my preference and I stick with what has made successful all these years.

Here are some of my favorites this week against the NFL odds.

 

New York Jets - Play Against teams when the line is +3 to -3, off two or more consecutive Over's, who score 23-27 points a game, against defensive squad that allows 23-27 PPG, past the half way point of the season.
WagerWeb like most sportsbooks open the Jets and Giants as a Pick, but due to the influx of money backing the New York club from the AFC, they pushed the visitor to -2.5. Gang Green tends to be a little skittish offensively, which is mostly due to how quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick performs. Last week the Harvard grad was on top of his game with five touchdown passes, as he raised the Jets scoring average and they went Over the total again. The Giants were pathetic in losing at Washington . Their defense continues to allow a lot passing yards and few too many points. In this contest on the first Sunday of December, teams like the Jets typically hit a rough spot against opponent that is of similar ability, at least the oddsmakers line and falls to 18.5 points a contest, with a 4-24 ATS record since 1983, losing by a touchdown.

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Kansas City Chiefs - Play On teams when the line is +3 to -3, who commit one or less turnovers a game, after two consecutive contests with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
Kansas City is on a major roll with five straight wins and covers. There are a number of aspects which standout about the Chiefs, but from a simplistic viewpoint, what you cannot help but notice is not one turnover, while forcing 14 miscues. That alone will keep you in the win column and Kansas City has forced at least two in each contest over their past six games. When teams take pride in protecting the pigskin and generating turnovers, it becomes a weekly point of emphasis and when matched against similar foe, they have an edge. How big an edge, what about 23-4 ATS in the last 10 years, winning by 8.3 points a game.

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Atlanta Falcons - Play On road teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season.
Atlanta is starting to resemble one of those old David Letterman bits when he or someone from his staff would throw objects off the roof tops to the concrete below and it would explode and come completely apart. The Falcons have lost four in a row and five of six and have not covered a spread since Oct.4th, which is seven games ago. There is a remote possibility Atlanta will not cover the spread eventually, but it might be in Tampa Bay, where for the first time they are an underdog (+1) during this crummy stretch. With this a division conflict and playing into revenge, Atlanta could finally breakout and teams like them are 24-5 ATS since 2006 when in this situation.

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Washington Redskins - Play On favorites off a close wins by seven points or less over a division rival, when playing on Monday night.
The Redskins upset of the New York Giants pulled them into a first place tie in the wretched NFC East. That moved Washington to 5-1 and 4-2 ATS at FedEx Field and they can further state their case as an improving squad at home with a victory over the hated Dallas Cowboys. In this football system, we have learned there is a carryover effect of beating a division rival in a close game and being on the Monday night stage where you are the only football to watch. Teams like Washington elevate their level of play and are 22-4 ATS the last 32 years when this unusual situation arises. And not only do they cover spread, they have brought their A-game, winning by 12.7 points a contest. For sports picks, the Skins look pretty good.

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