NFL Picks: Top Profitable Betting Systems for Your Week 12 Plays on Sides & Totals

Doug Upstone

Sunday, November 29, 2015 12:59 AM GMT

With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, in professional football we move ahead to the rest of the week to look at the sportsbooks' NFL odds to determine what we like for NFL picks.

As football handicapper I spend a lot of time going through statistics to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team, seeking an edge that might stand out and matters for NFL picks. I also review meaningful trends that can tip scale in my favor and focus on systems that are too hard to ignore.

The beauty of systems is they apply to all teams and are not limited by exterior factors, like scheduling for example. I am certainly not the only person who uses systems to handicap games, but my preference is those with high winning percentages, as long as they meet my requirements for number of contests played. I know plenty of handicappers who use systems which have a much larger volume of plays, but a lower winning percentage, which yield excellent ROI (return on investment). This is just not my preference and I stick with what has made successful all these years.

Here are some of my favorites this week against the NFL odds.

 

Tennessee Titans: Play Against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who have lost eight or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13.
Tennessee was not thought to be a very good team this season and has met those expectations in 2015. The Titans are slight underdogs to Oakland, who is not playing very well either recent contests, losers of three in a row. However, at this point of the year, bad teams are just that and before we get into the final month where linemakers offer different types of numbers and terrible clubs can offer value as huge underdogs, here we find they make mistakes and get beat versus opponents that are similar to them. Since 1983, teams like the Titans are 6-26 ATS in this situation.

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New England Patriots: Play Against road teams off a win against a division rival, if they are winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
Granted, it is New England we are talking about, but even they are not perfect against the spread as their 5-2-3 ATS record proves. What this has come down to is focus or the lack of it, after being more dialed in playing in a division contest. Winning on the road is never easy, even for the Patriots and being able to maintain a high level of energy away from home off opposing team you are very familiar is not that simple. Since 2011, squads like New England are only 8-28 ATS and they have lost by an average of 4.1 PPG. Is Denver where the Pats perfect season ends?

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New York Giants: Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
In the Giants last contest, they had New England on the ropes with a 26-24 lead late in the game as seven point home underdog, but Tom Brady worked his magic and New York lost on a last second field goal. In this week's matchup with Washington, oddsmakers are telling us this should a close game with Big Blue favored by three. Off their loss, New York should be ready to play having gained confidence from that defeat, which will help them in this case being on the road. Where the second half of the season comes into play is the numbers are as sharp as they have been all season and clubs like the G-Men elevate their level of play and 40-12 ATS going back to 1983, winning by almost five points a contest (4.8).

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Buffalo vs. Kansas City: Play UNDER on home teams (Chiefs) when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two consecutive road wins, in weeks 10 through 13.
What we find here is when oddsmakers like those at WagerWeb set a rather low number that falls into this range, home teams like Kansas City are probably off a couple good defensive performances. When you get to this point of the season, you have established an identity and in this case playing sound defense is the calling card. In the past 32 years, this rare system is 26-5 UNDER, with the average final score at just 34.7 total points. You should also be aware Buffalo is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last two seasons.

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