NFL Picks: Top Profitable Betting Systems for Your Week 10 Plays on Sides & Totals

Doug Upstone

Sunday, November 15, 2015 1:35 AM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 15, 2015 1:35 AM GMT

As a football handicapper, I use a variety of tools against the NFL odds to place myself on the right side of collecting money from the sportsbooks' releases week after week.

I comb through statistics to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team, seeking an edge that might stand out and matters for NFL picks. While many poo-poo trends as anomalies that come and go, when you find 12-1 ATS angle that has applied in more recent years, it certainly pays to pay attention to these. Also, I give an equal amount of attention to systems.

The beauty of systems is they apply to all teams and are not limited by exterior factors, like scheduling for example. I am certainly not the only person who uses systems to handicap games, but my preference is those with high winning percentages, as long as they meet my requirements for number of contests played. I know plenty of handicappers who use systems which have a much larger volume of plays, but a lower winning percentage, which yield excellent ROI (return on investment). This is just not my preference and I stick with what has made successful all these years.

Here are some of my favorites this week against the NFL odds.

 

Carolina Panthers: Play Against a favorite off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season.
The story on this NFL system is most football bettors tend to give too much credit to any team off a win like the Panthers had over Green Bay. The Packers made the books a good share of money last week and I am baffled Carolina continues not to get the credit they deserve at 8-0 and winners of 12 regular season games in a row.

However, emotionally, this is not a good situation for Carolina coming off three home games against Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Green Bay and like the teams before them, might lack the necessary edge against nonconference opponent who is just 2-6. In the last 10 years, clubs like the 'Cats are just 4-27 ATS in this spot.

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New Orleans Saints: Play Against teams after the midpoint of the season when the line is +3 to -3, off two or more consecutive Over's, having an offense averaging 23-27 PPG, against a below average defensive club allowing 23-27 PPG.
This system dates back to 1983 and what has occurred to teams like the Saints is that the offense slows down after a couple of big outings, against what the oddsmakers are saying is a comparable foe. You would think New Orleans would continue to keep the scoreboard flashing against a defense like Washington's, but they have not and averaged only 18.1 points a game in this situation.

Let's also not forget the Saints defense when looking at this, ranked 31st in points allowed at 29.8 PPG. This rare system finds squads like New Orleans 4-24 ATS, and in the last decade, a horrendous 1-16 against the spread. Something to consider for sports picks.

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Oakland Raiders: Play On home teams off one or more Over's, averaging 23-27 PPG, against a good defensive team conceding 14-18 PPG.
Some psychological experts claim there is no such thing as team "having momentum on their side". Nevertheless, they will agree that if a player or team has confidence and believes they can accomplish something, their chances are increased by such a belief. Presently, the Oakland Raiders offense is smokin' hot.

In their last three contests, QB Derek Carr and his teammates are averaging 35.3 PPG, taking season total to 26.6 PPG. This week they have a stern test against Minnesota, who is second in the NFL in fewest points given up at 17.5 PPG. With the way Carr and his Oakland mates are playing, the momentum or confidence has carried over into next contest and teams like the Raiders are 32-9 ATS since 2006, which includes 2-0 this season also.

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Arizona/Seattle Total: Play Under on offensive teams (Arizona) averaging 370 or more yards per game, against a good defense group surrendering 265 to 295 YPG (Seattle), after out-gaining last opponent by 200 or more total yards.
This Sunday night clash is extremely important for both these NFC West rivals. An Arizona triumph places them three games ahead of Seattle, while a Seahawks victory brings them within a game of the Cardinals.

Arizona is off a bye week and a win at Cleveland of 34-20 and based on 237 total yards edge, it should have been much worse except for the Cards four turnovers. Seattle's defense brings a whole different element against the NFL's No. 3 total offense, with the Seahawks tied for second in fewest points allowed (17.5) and all by themselves in second in fewest yards given up at 284.9 per game.

When these two circumstances collide, points are often hard to come by. In the past 31 years, this system has only come up 28 times and the UNDER is remarkable 25-3. WagerWeb has the total at 45, but with these setups, the typical final score has a tally of 40.2.

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