NFL Picks: Top Profitable Betting Systems for a Winning Week 8

Doug Upstone

Friday, October 30, 2015 6:18 PM GMT

As football handicapper, I use a variety of tools against the betting odds to place myself on the right side of collecting money from the sportsbooks week after week. Join me as a share a few.

I comb through statistics to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team, seeking an edge that might stand out and matters for NFL picks. While many poo-poo trends as anomalies that come and go, when you find 12-1 ATS angle that has applied in more recent years, it certainly pays to pay attention to these. Also, I give an equal amount of attention to systems.

The beauty of systems is they apply to all teams and are not limited by exterior factors, like scheduling for example. I am certainly not the only person who uses systems to handicap games, but my preference is those with high winning percentages, as long as they meet my requirements for number of contests played. I know plenty of handicappers who use systems which have a much larger volume of plays, but a lower winning percentage, which yield excellent ROI (return on investment). This is just not my preference and I stick with what has made successful all these years.

Here are some of my favorite this week against the NFL odds.

 

Oakland Raiders: Play On home teams averaging 23-27 points a game, against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of last game.
How this NFL system works is you have an above average offense taking on better than average defensive outfit. The home team is coming off a very good first two quarters in their past contest and this tends to build a lot of confidence for this club in their next game. Though the opposing team would seem to have a chance to slow their opponent, this has not been the case, as the home-standing crew believes in themselves. Dating back 31 years, home teams are 26-5 ATS, winning by an average of 14.6 points a game.

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Atlanta Falcons: Play Against home teams with excellent offensives gaining 370 or more yards per game, against opposing offensive team averaging 335 to 370 YPG, after totaling 375 or more total yards in two consecutive contests.
This might not make sense to some making sports picks so here goes. It appears all Atlanta is doing on offense is playing their normal game so why should it matter? What I find here is the opponent has the capacity to also move the ball effectively and this places pressure on the home team to keep having successful drives. In these cases, maybe the home team starts pressing when challenged and either turns the pigskin over or plays at pace they don't normally do and become flustered if not having the same success as recent encounters. In the last five years, clubs like the Falcons are a miserable 6-26 ATS, losing by 1.3 points a game. And to drive home this point, particularly about Atlanta, which I used on SBR NFL videos, the Dirty Birds are 6-25 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in two straight games.

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Seattle/Dallas Total: Play Under when the total is between 35.5 & 42 points, with a team like Dallas after they out-gained opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game, against foe after they out-gained opposition by 200 or more yards in their last outing.

This NFL system is easier to understand. We have two squads who by NFL standards dominated their opponents statistically. To do this you would have to been very good on offense and defense. These kind of domineering performances are hard to duplicate week after week, even if one team jumps off to a big lead, which forces the other team to throw the ball, which inevitably leads to yards gained.

With the total current total at 41 for this NFC conflict, unless we get a bucket full of turnovers, neither of these offenses are expected to be like New England. Going back to 1983, the UNDER is 32-9, with your average total score 36.4 total points.

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