NFL Picks: Top Consensus Betting Options Heading Into Week 13

Nikki Adams

Sunday, December 6, 2015 2:15 PM GMT

In this column, we highlight the top consensus matchups according to SBR ATS Consensus Trends provided by contributing sportsbooks. Where is the public placing NFL picks? Do they have it right?

Top Consenus Betting According to SBR
Each and every week, there are matchups that feature such one-sided NFL betting to make them the runaway hot NFL picks in public betting circles. Just because they are the hot matchups of the week doesn’t mean the public has it always right, of course. Often, they could be entirely wrong, presenting excellent opportunities for sharp bettors to bank on.  

In table 1, we list some of the hottest matchups of the week according to consenss ATS picks culled at SBR. We highlight a couple below and serve up some of our football insights to determine whether the public is right or it’s a sharp opportunity that you should pounce on with your NFL picks.

SBR Hot Matchups –Top ATS Consensus Betting

MATCHUP

LINE

ATS CONSENSUS

Broncos at Chargers

DEN -3.5

64.55 %

Cardinals at Rams

ARI -5.5

62.53%

Falcons at Bucs

ATL PK

59.97&

Chiefs at Raiders

KC -2.5

59.12%

Panthers at Saints

CAR -7.5

59.10 %

Texans at Bills

HOU +3

58.34%

Jets at Giants

NYG

56.99%

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Opening Line: Cardinals -5.5

The NFC West clash between the Cardinals and Rams ranks as one of the week’s top consensus bets according to SBR consenus reports.  In the chart below, we track the ATS NFL picks per line trading over the course of the week.

According to the above highlighted NFL betting trends, this is one of the hottest matchups in public circles to bet. The Cardinals opened as the 5.5-point favourites on the road and quickly received almost 70% of public bets. In actual money coming down the wire, those bets made up 77.9% of $$ wagered. Meanwhile, the early money coming down the wire on the Rams (31% of bets) amounted to just 22.10% of the money.

As the public continued to pound the Cardinals, the NFL lines moved as one would have expected – in favour of the faourites. Swelling up to a high of 7-points, during which time the Cardinals still managed to rake in the lion’s share of NFL picks.

The one-sided betting on this game is understandable when considering the contrasting fortunes of these divisional rivals. The Cardinals are 9-2 SU on the season and 6-5 ATS with an 11.5-point margin of victory on average, widely considered one of the best teams in the NFC after the Carolina Panthers. Yet, it’s worth noting the Cardinals only have a plus 6.6-point differential against the spreaad for the season, which falls right in the middle of the range of NFL lines trading (-5.5-to-7).

By that stat, the St. Louis Rams might warrant a second look as the home underdogs. Not to mention, they did beat the Cardinals earlier this season as the 7-point road underdogs, albeit narrowly (24-22).

However, are the Rams really a hidden sharp gem to consider for your NFL picks? Reality is that they are just 4-6-1 ATS on the season with a 4-point losing margin and a negative 3.2-point differential against the spread. In the last four games – all of which were SU losses – they’ve been outscored 51-to-105. That yields a whopping 13.5-point losing margin. Against the spread, they are also 0-4 ATS during this run of poor form and off by negative 11.5-points against the spread.

By those glaring stats, there’s an argument to be had about the NFL betting line that is currently trading being too low. In which case, the public could be right here and  the Cardinals at anywhere from -5.5-to-7 points would be a steal NFL pick. For our money, we’re leaning towards the Cardinals at -5.5 for our NFL picks, which is still available at The Greek, Pinnacle and William Hill.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -5.5 (-105) at Pinnacle

 

NY Jets vs. NY Giants
Advanced Line: Jets -1

The clash of the New Yorkers practically leaps off the page as one of the most intriguing matchups on the NFL betting menu, drawing contrary action across sports betting platforms. Advanced betting lines saw the Jets only marginally favoured as the 1-point road chalk, but following week 12’s results – Jets crushing the the Dolphins 38-20 and the Giants slipping to a lacklustre 20-14 loss to the Redskns, bookies reopened the NFL betting line anywhere from a pick’em to 2.5-points with the Jets to the good – these NFL lines varied from sportsbook to sportsbook.

In the chart below, we track some of the betting trends that are pouring in for this match according to our contributing sportsbooks.

According to the chart, it’s immediately obvious that consensus betting favours the Giants as the nominal home underdogs. They have more than 55% of the bets coming in regardless of the NFL betting line movements. Immediately, that raises a flag. Typically, when lopsided action features, the natural reaction is to adjust the NFL betting lines in accordance to the flow of public betting. In this case, with amount of bets coming down on the Giants one would expect their NFL odds to shorten and the Jets to swell.

The reason is revealed upon closer inspection. Of the 56.99 % of total bets wagered on the Giants, the money equals barely 50%. That the money risked on this game is almost split down the middle suggests sharp money (in the form of big wagers per ticket) came down on the Jets at some point during the week.

Ideally, we would prefer to see a higher amount of money wagered on the Jets in conjunction with the amount of tickets to better substantiate sharp money action to prompt the fading of the public, it’s still encouraging though that the amount of bets and dollar amount going towards the Giants is disproportionate. Hence, we’re leaning with the sharps here and fading the public on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Jets -2 (+100) at Pinnacle