NFL Picks: Top Colts vs. Patriots Prop Betting Options

Kevin Stott

Friday, January 16, 2015 3:43 PM GMT

The Patriots welcome the Indianapolis Colts to Foxboro Stadium on Sunday night for the AFC Championship Game. Fresh from the Westgate SuperBook here in Las Vegas are some Proposition Wagers and hopeful Picks.

Introduction
The New England Patriots welcome the Indianapolis Colts to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Sunday night for the AFC Championship game as the day’s second and final ticket to Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on February 1. This Patriots-Colts title tilt will be broadcast on CBS with kickoff scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET/12:05 p.m. PT. And the ratings for this showdown should absolutely be through the roof as should the game’s betting handle. This game will play the winner of Sunday’s NFC Championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers from CenturyLink Field in potentially rainy Seattle.

Odds makers here at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, currently (Thursday night) have the host Patriots as 6½-point favorites with the Total set at 54½. Besides the normal conventional odds for this game, the sports book also has offered a number of intriguing Proposition Bets so let’s take a look at some and see if we can’t make a little bit of money to help continue to feed our pets and bad habits.


Some Interesting AFC Championship Game Proposition Bets Odds
Will Either Team Score Three Straight Times? Yes -190, No +170; First Score Of The Game Will Be: TD -210, Any Other Score +180; Total Gross Passing Yards Andrew Luck 310½; Total TD Passes By Andrew Luck 2 Over -150; Total Receiving Yards TY Hilton 74½; Will TY Hilton Score A TD? No -155; Total Completions Tom Brady 23½; Total TD Passes By Tom Brady 2 Over -140; Will Tom Brady Throw An Interception? Yes -125; Total Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski 82½; Total Will Rob Gronkowski Score A TD? Yes -170; Shortest TD Of Game (Yard line) 1½ Under -140; Will Either Team Score In The Final 2 Minutes Of The First Half? Yes -300; Total QB Sacks By Both Teams 3½ Over -135; Indianapolis Colts Total Team Points 24; New England Patriots Total Team Points 30½.


Will Dwayne Allen Score A Touchdown? Yes +150
Indianapolis Colts TE Dwayne Allen didn’t have overwhelmingly great stats this regular season (29 receptions, 395 yards, 8 TDs), but he was absent for a good chunk of it, including Week 11’s embarrassing 42-20 pasting by these very same Patriots at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. Colts QB Andrew Luck will be glad to have the massive Allen (6’3”, 265 pounds) available for this one and the Clemson product warmed up last week in Indianapolis’s upset at Denver, catching 7 balls for 70 yards and a TD. Allen is a big target and a good possession receiver and, as you can tell from his Catch/TD ratio (29/8), he’s a prime choice down in the Red Zone for the Colts. In a perceived high-scoring game, he’ll get his chances to score. And the nice little plus (+150) isn’t too shabby either. Ride on.


Total Receiving Yards Julian Edelman: Over 72½ -110
These are the times that try men’s souls and when it gets this late in the season and there is so much on the line, expect Patriots QB Tom Brady to prescribe heavy doses of WR Julian Edelman (93 receptions, 972 yards, 4 TDs, 10.6 ypc). The 5-foot-10-inch 200-pound receiver has a nice ability to find the open seams and sit down underneath coverage and could be targeted up to as many as 10 times, depending on how this game evolves. When these two met in the aforementioned Week 11, Edelman was relatively held in check by Indianapolis, catching 5 balls for 50 yards but his season average (69.4 ypc) and the situation dictate that he’ll be very valuable in this game in terms of both getting first downs for New England as well  as being a deep threat. Edelman is great racking up YAC too and has pretty good speed (4.52 40-yard dash) for a former QB from Kent State. The times they are a changin’.


Will Both Teams Make A 33 Yard FG Or Longer? Yes +165
It’s simple. Both Ks are absolutely fantastic. And that’s certainly not hyperbole. The Colts Adam Vinatieri—formerly a member of the Patriots—is 30/31 (96.8%) on his FG attempts this season for Indianapolis with a successful long FG of 53 yards while the Patriots Stephen Gostkowski is 35/37 (94.6%) with a long FG also from 53 yards. Besides missing only three FGs combined out of a total 68 attempted, neither Vinatieri nor Gostkowski has missed an XP in a combined 101 attempts. Très magnifique, Philippe.


Applying what they have both done in this season from that range, the numbers all support backing this prop wager and both teams will be quick to try to put up points anyway possible from anywhere with so much at stake. Check it out: Vinatieri is 10/10 from 30-39 yards out; 7/8 from 40-49; and, 3/3 from 50+. So 20/21 from this theoretical range. And Gostkowski is 10/11 from 30-39; 12/13 from 40-49; and, 1/1 from 50+ yards out—that 53-yard season-long one of his, so, the New England K is 25/27 from this range so the numbers couldn’t look any better. But, buyer beware here as precipitation is in the weather forecast for Foxboro on Sunday evening, and this could influence the NFL odds. A little bit of late homework on The Weather Channel on Saturday night might help as much as the healthy plus price of +165 should both Ks untimately connect from 33 yards and beyond in this contest. Warm the oven.

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Largest Lead Of The Game By Either Team Under 16½ -110
This game should stay fairly close throughout with the Colts being much more talented and playing better now than mid-season numbers reflect. Indianapolis made a commitment to a Rushing attack at Denver and it worked, and, for the second straight week (Cincinnati), the Horseshoes looked and played really good on the defensive side of the football. With the two aforementioned accurate-as-heck Ks Vinatieri and Gostkowski, trailing teams can answer and hopefully keep it within the 16½-point Safe Swimming Zone for this bet. And the ideal thing for this play would be for the visiting Colts to strike first with a TD and grab a 7-0 lead and then force New England to register a +24 the rest of the way to defeat the bet. The only other way to lose is if Indianapolis somehow leads by 17 at one point and with their past track record SU against the Patriots (13-2 L15), it just doesn’t seem like that will be a real strong possibility this Sunday.


AFC Championship Picks: Will Dwayne Allen Score A Touchdown? Yes +150; Total Receiving Yards Julian Edelman Over 72½ -110; Will Both Teams Make A 33 Yard FG Or Longer? Yes +165; Largest Lead Of The Game By Either Team Under 16½ -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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