Tom Brady Passing Yards 283 ½
- Over (-115)
- Under (-115)
Tom Terrific went 24-of-35 for 340 passing yards in the season’s first meeting against the Chiefs, held at the Razor, but Brady has not been the same quarterback on the road as he’s been in Foxboro. Kansas City’s pass rush is like a pack of hungry wolves looking for their next meal, while the Chiefs’ secondary resembles, well, those wolves’ next meal.
Nonetheless, it will be cold and blustery at Arrowhead on Sunday and the Patriots will be looking to run as often as possible now that they have Rex Burkhead as a power back to complement the fleet-footed Sony Michel. New England will be content to chew up the clock and keep Mahomes off the field which means more running and less passing. I suspect Bill Belichick is game-planning for a more controlled offense and one that would prefer not to get into a track meet with the high-flying Chiefs led by Patrick Mahomes. Therefore, Brady will not eclipse 283 yards so we’re going low in our NFL picks on this prop.
Free NFL Pick: Under 283 ½ passing yards Tom Brady
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards 308 ½
- Over (-110)
- Under (-110)
Unless you’re a Patrick Mahomes fanboy or girl, this total has to look pretty high to the average bettor. I’m not sure if those who set the NFL odds have gotten the word but it’s going to be freezing in KC this weekend. I’d like to let them in on a little secret – it’s a lot harder to throw and catch the ball when your hands are gnarled into concrete mitts. The Patriots’ defense has coalesced into a very effective unit and is far superior to the one that Kansas City faced in mid-October. Mahomes will get his yards and his share of touchdowns but we’re not buying into him burying the Pats for more than 300 yards when tossing the football will feel more like throwing a cinder block. Go low and grab the cash.
Free NFL Pick: Under 308 ½ passing yards Patrick Mahomes
Sony Michel Rushing Yards 75 ½
- Over (-125)
- Under (+105)
Expect Sony Michel to be busier than a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest on Sunday. Michel has been getting better looks since Rex Burkhead returned as the contrast in running styles has softened up the run-stop units and given Michel better looks when running the rock. Last week he had 129 yards rushing and three trips into the end zone in New England’s 41-28 victory over the Chargers. Moreover, when these teams met three months ago, Michel racked up 106 yards in front of 68,000 rabid fans. This time around Michel may not break the century mark in rushing yards but he’s more likely to do that than get 75 or less. Go over in this prop and lay the extra juice because you don’t pay it when you win.
Free NFL Pick: Over 75 ½ rushing yards Sony Michel