NFL Picks: Titans Won't Endure Jaguars Shattering Attack

SBR Staff

Thursday, November 19, 2015 8:20 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 8:20 PM UTC

Tennesse Titans visit Jacksonville Jaguars for a very expected clash on Thursday Night Football. Check inside for insights in NFL odds that'll help you choose winning NFL picks tonight.

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Thursday Night NFL Preview
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Lines:Jaguars -3, O/U 42
Recommendation: Take the Jaguars


Odds Overview
There’s one trend that has become VERY clear on Thursday Night Football this year. Experienced coaches have a big edge over the coaches who haven’t had to get their team ready for a short turnaround week. Look at how the less experienced coaches teams have performed this year – I’ve listed every single example from this year, which shows a 7-0 ATS mark betting against the inexperienced coaches (first or second year as an NFL head coach). 

Last week, the experienced Rex Ryan got the win and cover as an underdog against the inexperienced Todd Bowles. The Browns got wiped out in Cincinnati, with the relatively inexperienced Mike Pettine facing off against coaching veteran Marvin Lewis. First year, first time head coach Dan Campbell did not have his team ready against Bill Belichick on Thursday Night the previous week. 

San Fran’s inexperienced Jim Tomsula got annihilated by Pete Carroll the week before that. Atlanta’s Dan Quinn in his first year at the helm didn’t have his team ready at Sean Payton’s Saints the week before that. In his second year, Bill O’Brien’s Texans struggled against Chuck Pagano and the Colts before that. Jay Gruden, in his second year, was no match for Tom Coughlin when the Giants faced the Redskins.

This is NOT a trend that the betting markets seem to be noticing for the NFL odds, but it’s been paying off all year and it passes the ‘does it make sense’ test.  A short week is not easy for any coach, and the coaches who haven’t been in this spot are at a real and significant disadvantage.


The Game
Gus Bradley has won SU and ATS on a short week as a home favorite in each of the last two seasons. Mike Mularkey has only been the Titans head coach for two weeks, and in his lone previous Thursday Night try, his Jaguars got hammered in a 17 point loss. Plain and simple – this is a bigger edge than the markets are giving it credit for being, especially since nobody seems to have noticed…

And I like this spot for the Jaguars, coming off a dismal effort at Baltimore. Jacksonville played one of their worst games of the season, outgained by more than two yards per play. But they were able to take advantage of numerous Ravens mistakes to emerge with the win; a real confidence boost for this long struggling team. 

All of a sudden, the Jags are just a game out of first place. They’ve got plenty to play for and they’re better than what we saw last week. Tennessee has been held to 13 points or less five times in their last six games and they’ve got cluster injuries in the secondary. That’s a bad combo in this pointspread range. For your NFL picks tonight, take Jaguars.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Jaguars -3 at BetCRIS

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