NFL Picks: Titans vs. Steelers Betting Odds Analysis

Ross Benjamin

Monday, September 2, 2013 6:04 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 2, 2013 6:04 PM UTC

The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers kick off their regular season schedules at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, starting Sunday afternoon at 1:00 p.m. ET.

The NFL Season is upon us. Check out our Week 1 Opening Odds Report!

My NFL odds service shows the Steelers opened as a 6.5-point favorite and have moved to 7.0. It also shows that 52% of public money has been wagered on the underdog in this contest. In addition, the total for this game opened at 43.5 and is now currently sitting on 42. This move may have been prompted by the fact that 62% of public money has been wagered on the 'Under' at this point.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee went an identical 6-10 straight up and against the spread a season ago. The Titans were a dismal 2-6 SU&ATS on the road in 2012. Tennessee found themselves as an underdog in 13 of their 16 games last season, while going 2-7 ATS as an underdog of 5.0 or more. The Titans have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 season openers. Mike Munchak begins his third season as the head coach of the Titans. Under Munchak, Tennessee has gone 15-17 but a dismal 12-20 ATS. The Titans haven’t reached the playoffs since the 2008 season under Jeff Fisher which consequently was their last winning season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers finished a very disappointing 8-8 last year and missed the playoffs for just the 2nd time in the last 9 seasons. The last time Pittsburgh missed the playoffs was in 2009. The following season they had a 12-4 regular season and advanced to the Super Bowl where they lost to Green Bay 31-25. Mike Tomlin begins his 7th season as head coach of this storied franchise. In Tomlin’s first 6 seasons the Steelers have gone an impressive 62-36, made the playoffs in 5 of those 6 campaigns, advanced to the Super Bowl twice, and captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy by winning the 2009 Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 9 of their last 11 season openers. The Steelers have won 10 consecutive home openers with their last loss coming in 2002 versus the Oakland Raiders. The black and gold have also covered 7 of their last 8 home openers. The Steelers have seen 9 of their last 10 games as a home favorite go under the total, and if the total was 39.0 or more, all 7 of those contests went below the number with an average combined score of 31.0 points per game. Pittsburgh has won 12 of their last 13 home games versus non-division opponents. Their only loss in that sequence came inexplicably at the hands of the San Diego Chargers 34-24 as a 7.5-point favorite on 12/9/2012.

Applicable Technical ATS Angles

Since the start of the 1995 season away underdog of 6.5 or more that are playing in their season opener, and won 6 or more games in the previous season, versus an opponent who won 8 games or less the year before is 8-2 ATS. The away underdog has won 4 of those 8 games outright. In addition since the start of the 1980 season, any home favorite of 7.0 or less that’s playing in their season opener, and both teams in the contest won 8 games or less in the previous season is 43-63 ATS.

Final Analysis:

This one to me is a tough call. The Steelers have been banged up at running back the entire preseason and don’t seem as dominant on the offensive line as they’ve been in years past. The Titans took a step backwards last season in Mike Munchak’s second season in charge going from 9-7 in his first season to 6-10 a year ago. I have a small lean toward going under the total in this game for my NFL picks. My advice is to wager conservatively as there is better sports betting value on the board.


NFL Pick: Bet the Titans/Steelers game UNDER 42 points at Ladbrokes

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