NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football Winning Over-Under Play

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 6:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 6:13 PM UTC

The Seahawks are 0-3 on the Road this season and will be heading into a hornet’s nest in Santa Clara Thursday night to face host San Francisco 49ers in a big NFC West clash.

Odds Overview Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
The NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) travel to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday night to face the San Francisco 49ers (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) in this NFC West primetime battle from The City By The Bay. Right now (Tuesday afternoon), the Seahawks range from 6- (Pinnacle) to 6½- (5Dimes) to even 7-point (+113, favorites with the Total in this game ranging from 41½ (Pinnacle), 42½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and even 43u (Island Casino). On the Money Line, visitors and favorite Seattle is priced at -260 with host San Francisco priced at +231 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The San Francisco 49ers Team Total Points for this game is 18 (Ladbrokes) while the Seattle Seahawks Team Total Points has been set at 24 (Ladbrokes). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle as -8½ favorites in this one in their NFL Games of the Year while last week’s Advanced Line from that same sportsbook here in Las Vegas had Seattle as 6-point favorites. This game opened at 5½ and 41 (Pinnacle) and has risen to 6 pretty much everywhere so there has been both Seattle & Over money on this one so far.


***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night Preview***
***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night ATS Pick***
***49ers Player Props for Thursday Night Football***
***Seahakws Player Props for Thursday Night Football***

Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks (134 PF-125 PA) and Head Coach Pete Carroll (55-38-3 ATS) suffered a very tough Loss on Sunday at Home at CenturyLink Field when the Carolina Panthers came into a place few do and win and won, 27-24, to stay unbeaten and send the defending NFC champions to 2-4. But this Seahawks team is used to rallying from behind in the standings in the 2nd Half of Regular Seasons, so don’t count this team out yet although a Loss here to the Niners would surely send the team into crisis mode. On Offense, the Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson (8-13 ATS on Road) connected heavily with new TE Jimmy Graham (29 receptions, 344 yards, 3 TDs, 16.9 ypc) last week in the Loss, and the University of Wisconsin product Wilson will look to Graham, WR Doug Baldwin, WR Jermaine Kearse, Rookie (Central Michigan University) Thomas Rawls (59 rushes, 334 yards, TD) and hopefully RBs Marshawn Lynch (280 rushes, 1,306 yards, 13 TDs in 2014) for support. On the Injury front for Seattle (16/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes), talented LB Bobby Wagner (Pectoral), CB Tye Smith (Hip), CB Marcus Bailey (Hand), DT Jordan Hill (Quadricep) and DE Frank Clark (Hamstring) are all listed as Questionable for this one. Even though Seattle has been good against San Francisco of late, expect them to play nervous because of its last outing, the 2-game skid, the 2-4 record, the 0-3 Road record, the short Rest (3 Days) and the apparent disharmony in the Legion of Doom. It’s seems something ain’t right in Seattle and it may be more than just one thing.


San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers (100 PF-160 PA) and QB Colin Kaepernick defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 25-20 here at Home at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday in Week 6 to earn the ‘W’ and gain some valuable confidence. The game was fairly similar to San Francisco’s Week 1 performance and victory against the Minnesota Vikings with the 49ers looking like a respectable football team. But this team scuffled from Weeks 2-5, losing to the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 2 (43-18); falling at Arizona in Week 3 (47-7); the Packers in San Francisco in Week 4 (17-3) and at the New York Giants in Week 5 (30-27). The 49ers (500/1 to Super Bowl) do have some decent weapons on Offense in WR Torrey Smith, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Vernon Davis, RB Carlos Hyde and RB Reggie Bush, but San Francisco’s -60 PD is the worst in the NFC, although honestly, the 49ers schedule so far (and including this dogfight) has been absolutely brutal (Vikings, Steelers, Cardinals, Packers, Giants, Ravens, Seahawks). Heading in here, the 49ers have three players listed as Questionable: WR Bruce Ellington (Calf), G Brandon Thomas (Ankle) and WR Boldin (Hamstring) while RB Bush (Foot) and Hyde (Foot) are both listed as Probable. Expect everyone necessary to be ready and play. This is a big game.


Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
Last year in this NFC West rivalry, the Seahawks won 19-3 in this game in Santa Clara in the then 1st-year Levi’s Stadium, getting 1-point as an underdog, and then Seattle won again 17-7 as 10-point chalks at Home at CenturyLink, pushing the Point Spread. Note how low-scoring those two games were (22, 24 points). Seattle is 1-6-1 ATS in its L8 overall while San Francisco is 2-10 ATS in its L12 games played on Grass. The Under is 9-3 ATS in the L12 Seahawks games vs. the NFC West and the Under is 7-1 in the L7 San Francisco games played on Thursday. And on Thursdays, the Seahawks are 5-2 ATS (4-2 SU) and 3-1 ATS on the Road while San Francisco is 3-5 ATS (5-3 SU) and 1-2 ATS at Home on Thursdays, although those games were played at the old Candlestick Park. Seattle is a shiny 7-0-1 ATS L8 vs. the 49ers (1-6-1 ATS L8 in Week 7) and the Seahawks are 3-1 ATS the L4 here in San Francisco, so a good bulk of the Trends support backing the Seahawks here in this situation in The City By The Bay where the game-time Temperature forecast is 63° with medium Winds of 9-14 mph.

Expect the host Niners and QB Kaepernick (11-12 ATS at Home) to really be up for this one and both teams don’t seem to be as bad as current perceptions of them or their 2-4 SU records. Seattle and Wilson will look to go to TE Graham in key situations, and the big thing here could be how well the 49ers D matches up and plays for four quarters against the Seattle Offense. Both teams may play tentative at first here, and with the scores of the L3 meetings in the Bay Area seeing neither team surpass the 20-point mark (Seahawks 19-3, 49ers 19-17, 49ers 13-6), the Under seems like it may be worth a shot with a high in the marketplace now of 43 here in Sin City at Treasure Island. But a primetime Under? With both QBs failing to get into any real flow so far this season, both sitting at 2-4 heading in and averaging a total of just 25.7 ppg over those L3 either in San Francisco or Santa Clara, the fact that the Under is 9-3 ATS in the L12 Seahawks games vs. the NFC West and that the Under is 7-1 in the L8 San Francisco games played on Thursday, expecting this NFC West slog to play out like a low-scoring chess match with TDs infrequent and FGs aplenty and backing the Under for a small to modest amount seems like the only approach with San Francisco capable of pulling of the upset in this game.


PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 23 49ers 17
NFL WEEK 7 PICK: Under 43 (Treasure Island)

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