NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football Prop Betting

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 7, 2013 1:00 PM GMT

Week 10 NFL Prop betting is set to kick off with the Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings.

NFL Week 10 TNF Prop picks

The NFL odds have Washington as slight betting odds favorites in this game, but instead of focusing on fickle spreads, let’s turn our attention to the prop realm, where I think I have uncovered some great value for this game tonight. All of these odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook

Player Performance

Pierre Garcon is coming off of a huge week where he had over 170 yards receiving, and on a short week against one of the most banged up defenses in the NFL, I think he could go off again. Bet365 has Garcon at 85.5 receiving yards, and at -120, I think the over is the way to go. So far this season, the Vikings have given up over 291 passing yards per game, and with injuries all around their defense, those numbers haven’t been getting any better week to week. 

The Redskins’ defense hasn’t done much either, but that means this prop should have even more value. If Washington is giving up tons of points like they have been all season, Robert Griffin III will have to throw the ball much more. Garcon is the undisputed #1 target in Washington, as he has seen double digit targets in six of the Skins’ eight games. Outside of AJ Green and Vincent Jackson, Garcon has been targeted more times than any other receiver in the NFL, and another ten or more targets this week is very likely. 

As long as the Redskins' running game comes to play, the passing game should have no issues. Even if the Skins get a lead in this game, on third down, it would be a crime to looks anywhere else on the Skins’ roster other than Garcon. Take the over; Minnesota’s pass defense will give Garcon 86 or more yards. 

My Pick: Pierre Garcon ‘Over’ 85.5 receiving yards (-120) 

Tune in to this article by Jason Lake to get the best ATS Pick on this game~

[gameodds]16/227001/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Race to 10 points

Neither one of these teams have been great at scoring early, but one of them has to hit 10 points first. The Redskins have by far been the worst at cashing this prop between the two teams. In eight games this season, the Redskins have beaten their opponent to 10 points once, and ironically, it was against the Broncos, who ended the game beating the Skins 45-21. 

However this week against a very banged up defense, I see the Skins getting offense early. The Vikings have been solid against the run, but the Skins are one of the best play action teams in the NFL with Griffin III, and with  S Jamarca Sanford and CB Chris Cook out for the Vikings, there isn’t much left in the Vikings secondary. 

I think Bet365 is undervaluing the injuries for the Vikings for opur NFL picks here. Because, the Skins are only -120 to win the race to 10. They may also be overvaluing the fact that Washington has only beaten their opponent to 10 points once this season. Either way, the Vikings are an example of a lost franchise offensively, and on a short week, I can’t see them getting to 10 before Washington does, even at home in the dome.

My Pick: Redskins first to 10 points (-120)