NFL Picks: Through the Air & Over the Total for Monday Night Football

Charles Stark

Monday, October 19, 2015 1:30 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 1:30 PM GMT

Monday Night offers an exciting NFC rivalry between the Giants & Eagles. With both teams being pass first offenses, and neither proficient at stopping the pass, I anticipate a high-scoring affair.

NFL odds
NFL odds makers have come out with this line for the total at 50 and it hasn't moved much across the board. For my NFL pick of the day I'm going to take over this total as I believe this will be one of the more higher scoring games of the weekend. Right now you can still get pretty good odds at over the total of 50 at 5Dimes -105.

 

New York Giants
Offensively the Giants averaged 26.4 points per game, 373.6 yards per game, and a third-down 44.44% conversion rate. They get most of it done with Eli Manning and through the air as they passed the ball 61.28% of the time which ranks 13th in the NFL. This has been a successful approach for them as they rank seventh in passing yards per game at 282.4. Against the Eagles they should be able to move the ball consistently through the air and only run the ball to keep the Eagles honest. I think this will be the Giants approach because Philadelphia has one of the better run defenses in the NFL.

Defensively the Giants allowed 21.8 points per game, 384.8 yards per game, and a third-down 46.58% conversion rate. Teams have been able to move the ball on the Giants with not much resistance over these past few weeks. Although they are second ranked in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 80.6, they are also ranked as one of the worst in passing defense allowing 304 point to yards per game. They could be in for a tough night tonight against a Philadelphia team that seems to have some momentum.

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Philadelphia Eagles
Offensively the Eagles averaged 23.4 points per game, 339 yards per game, and a third-down 27.87% conversion rate. They have not played well this season on the offense of an but after their last game that seems like maybe something has clicked. Like the Giants they like to pass the ball a lot more than they run with Sam Bradford as they put the ball up in the air 61.28% of the time. This should be their approach to this game, as mentioned, because the Giants are pretty weak in stopping teams passing game.

Defensively the Eagles are allowing 20.6 points per game, 376.4 yards per game, and a third-down 42.11% conversion rate. Defensively they are a mirror image of New York as they rank 10th in rushing yards per game at 96.8, but 26 in passing yards per game at 279.6. With Bradford having a great game last time out against the Saints I look for him to continue that at home tonight.

Last year in Philadelphia the Eagles won 27-0, under this total of 50, and in 2013 in Philadelphia they lost 15-7, again under this total. On the flipside of that though is that in New York they have gone over this total the past two years and I look for them to have that type of performance tonight combined. For one of your NFL picks today I suggest backing over the total in what should be a really fun rivalry game on Monday night football.

NFL Pick: Giants & Eagles OVER 50 (-105) at 5Dimes

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