We are approaching the halfway point of the NFL regular season, and as hard as that is to believe, we can’t get caught up in the pace. This week there is NFL Odds value in certain spreads, and teasing them up or down is a good way to switch up your NFL Picks.
Seahawks & Packers
To start off this week, I’m going with a couple of favorites, and teasing them down to -1. We start with the Hawks, who had a deflating loss to the Cowboys a week ago, and now have to head into St. Louis to play the Rams. They are a touchdown favorite, and while I would not touch that line, on the road Seattle could still win this game. The Rams’ defense is still exploitable, and I think last week was more about the Cowboys playing well. Seattle should bounce back here and cover their teaser odds.
For the Packers, they almost blew a game to the Dolphins, and this week the NFL odds have them as a seven-point favorite at home against the Panthers. Carolina is playing well, and once again while I would not touch this game’s spread, teasing it down to -1 has good value. I thought about teasing up the Panthers here too, and while I’m not against it, the safer play might be on the Packers. Carolina’s defense is shot, and if Green Bay can get the run going, they will win here.
NFL Pick: 6-point teaser: Seahawks -1 & Packers -1
Jaguars & Saints
Jacksonville is not trustworthy. I understand this. However in a teaser, those traditional rules kind of go out the window. This week the Jags are at home against a Browns team with a bad defense, and after some severe NFL odds inflation, they are all the way up to +5 ½ at home, after opening at +3. This gives us an opening with some teaser value, and teasing the Browns up to +11 ½ at home looks like gold. I am also recommending the over for this game, so either way you want to tease it for your NFL picks, I think this game lends itself to value.
One the other side we have the Saints, fresh off a bye week, but likely still without their star tight end, Jimmy Graham. The NFL odds have them as +3 underdogs on the road this week in Detroit, however the Lions are not without injury concern of their own. Calvin Johnson did not play last week, and neither did Reggie Bush. If these two miss this game, the Saints will have a window, especially if that window is teased up to +9, or even +9 ½ if the line rises.
NFL Pick: 6-point teaser: Jaguars +11.5 & Saints +9
Cowboys & Texans
For my final teaser of the week, I’m going with the Texas duo. Dallas is at home against the Giants and favored by -6 ½, making the decision to tease them down to a PK an easy one. New York’s offense has been disappointing, but what has been as much or even more depressing for this team has been their defense. They are giving up the 24th most passing yards per game this season, and their run defense hasn’t been much better. Dallas should have no problem moving the ball, and no problem winning outright.
On Monday night, Houston heads on the road into Pittsburgh, and the NFL odds have them as a +3 or even a +3 ½ underdog. The Browns just blasted the Steelers, and if the Texans can get their defense going, they pose a threat to Pittsburgh. This is especially true if you tease the Texans to +9 ½. With their running game back clicking with Arian Foster, the Texans are a better football team than Pittsburgh. Despite the Steelers’ great offense, their defense cannot be trusted, especially to cover a double-digit tease spread.
NFL Pick: 6-point teaser: Cowboys PK & Texans +9 ½
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