We got roughed up on Thursdsy night, but Friday is a new day, and I am still slightly over .500 in my NFL Preseason Picks this year. While there is only a short card tonight, there is value to be had. Let’s see if we can right the ship tonight and cash a couple of winning tickets with our NFL picks tonight.
Definitely the most intriguing of all the matchups in Week 3 is the Seahawks heading into Green Bay to play the Packers. This could easily be an NFC Title game preview, and the NFL odds have the Hawks as road favorites of -2 ½, with a total of 43. Both teams had nice wins in Week 2, and for the Hawks, Russell Wilson played the entire first half, and you can bet he’ll likely get more playing time tonight against a solid Packers defense. Pete Carroll has been a preseason machine since he entered the league, going 9-5 SU including this year.
The Hawks’ defense is as imposing as ever, and I have a feeling that we could see a game that features defense more than offense. Both of these teams haven’t allowed many points this preseason, and while the Hawks have been scoring against the likes of the Chargers and the very depleted Broncos defenses, Green Bay will be another story, especially if the starters get more of a run. The total just seems a bit high to me, and I think that most online sportsbooks are overvaluing the Hawks’ scoring so far this preseason, putting up over 70 points in two games. Defense normally starts to rule a bit more in Week 3, and I think this game will be an example. Both defensive coaches will actually do some game planning in this game, instead of just playing base defense all game like in Weeks 1 and 2.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 43
The late game tonight will be the Bears heading out to Oakland to play the Raiders, and the NFL Odds once again favor the road team here at -3 ½, with a total of 38 points. Although it is tempting to play the spread in this game, it is hard to predict. Last week favorites were 11-5 ATS, while in Week 1, the underdogs cashed at a rate of 10-6 ATS.
With Week 3 used as a dress rehearsal, the starting offenses and defenses will get more of a run in this game. The Bears will be licking their paws trying to get at the soft Raiders defense, and I see the total as just too low for this kind of offensive upside with Chicago. The Bears could easily put up 28-30 points by themselves against the Raiders, and even though the Bears have a great defense, if the Raiders can protect their QBs in this game, they could also get into double figures. The Bears are going through a slight change in scheme on defense as well, and they have been prone to giving up points so far this preseason. The ‘Over’ is 20-12-1 so far this preseason, and I am following the trend with this lower Friday total.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 38