We split a schedule of four games yesterday in the NFL Preseason, so let’s take a look and see what kind of value we can uncover for our NFL picks Friday night.
Neither one of these teams played very long in Week 1 of the preseason, but I think we can expect Dennis Allen and Sean Payton to play their starters much longer in Week 2 against one another. That will almost certainly lead to more scoring, and that’s why I think a play on the total is the way to go in this one.
Sportsbooks are favoring the Saints here at -6, with a total of only 40 points. Both coaches are likely gearing up for Week 3, but I fully expect the starters for both teams to get all of the snaps in the first quarter, and possibly some after that as well. Neither defense from 1st to 4th string is very good, and with the Raiders offense coming along under Matt Flynn, I think we need to play the ‘Over’ here. Both teams will be focused on their offenses, Oakland because of the QB situation, and the Saints for the return of Payton. The ‘Over’ went 11-5 last week, and is now 13-7 in the preseason heading into Friday night.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 40
With both teams coming off of losses, this too could be a very good game. The NFL Odds for this one favor the Chiefs at -1 ½, with a total of 40 points. Like most teams this week, I expect the starters on both sides of the ball to be out on the field for most of the first half, and while both of these defenses are very good, I think the total for this game is also undervalued and low.
Along with the ‘Over’ being a very profitable option for your sports picks in this year's preseason, Andy Reid has been pretty successful in the preseason at cashing the ‘Over’. He is 31-25-1 in his preseason career going above the total, and with the added motivation of Alex Smith facing his old team, I think some points are going to be put up in this game.
Following a system that has been going since 2010 also leads me to believe this game is going over the total. Since 2010, if a team that played in the conference finals last season is a preseason underdog against a team that did not play in the conference title game, the ‘Over’ is 19-6 during that span.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 40
After his Week 1 win, Bill Belichick is 11-4 SU in Week 1’s of the preseason, but only 18-21 SU in Weeks 2, 3 and 4. The NFL Odds for this one favor the Pats at -3, with a total of 40. With the news of the scare to Tom Brady, make sure he is starting the game before you place your wager, but I think he is going to play a little, and for revenge for almost ruining their season, I could easily see the Pats laying waste to the Bucs in this game. It’s just a gut feeling, but I could see it happening.
Tampa’s defense looked awful in Week 1 against Baltimore, and the Patriots’ offense looks pretty good for having all of those rookies. It could be a recipe for disaster if Brady starts this game and plays most of the 1st quarter. Tampa is very overrated this season in my eyes, and while the Pats have never been steaming with value before the season starts, I think their situation is making them slightly undervalued here. Lay the points as long as Brady makes the start.
My Pick: Patriots -3