NFL Picks: Thanksgiving NFL Betting Value Picks

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 28, 2013 12:41 PM GMT

Is there anything better than the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day tripleheader? Okay, maybe the Super Bowl. But these three Gravy Bowl games are the feature attractions on this week’s sports betting calendar.

Jason’s record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to November 27 inclusive:

28-25-2 ATS

1-1 ML (+0.71 units)

5-10-1 Totals

NFL Picks: Week 13 Betting Odds Report

Football, glorious football. It’s become as much a Thanksgiving tradition in America as mashed potatoes and those little black hats with the buckles on them. But you know what would make this day even better? Money. Sweet, sweet money. Let’s dive right into Thursday’s NFL odds and see if there’s anything we can sink our teeth into.

Be sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 13 Fades & Games to Avoid

NFL Picks: Week 13 Value Picks 

Green Bay at Detroit (12:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

The big story with this game is that QB Matt Flynn (89.5 career passer rating) with be starting for the Packers (5-5-1 SU, 5-6 ATS), who are 6.5-point dogs on the NFL odds board with a total of 49. Green Bay has lost (or tied) four straight games at 0-4 ATS since QB Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of commission early in Week 9. But this will be Flynn’s first start, replacing QB Scott Tolzien (66.8 passer rating), who replaced injured QB Seneca Wallace.

This is also Flynn’s first start for Green Bay since he torched the Lions (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) for six touchdowns in the final game of the 2011 regular season. Flynn has lost starting gigs in Seattle and Oakland since then, and while that wasn’t all his fault – not everyone can be Russell Wilson – it’s a bit much to expect Flynn to deliver more than a yeoman effort against a Detroit team that had already sewn up a playoff spot in their last encounter. The Packers are ripe for the picking with all their injuries. 

NFL Pick: Take the Lions –6 at Sports Interaction 

[gameodds]16/227044/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Oakland at Dallas (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS) 

Speaking of Flynn’s former employers, the Raiders (4-7 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) have played reasonably well with QB Matt McGloin (88.8 passer rating), losing two of three while bagging the cash twice. He’ll get some help this week with LT Jared Veldheer coming off injured reserve. RB Darren McFadden (3.6 yards per carry) is also expected to rejoin the Raiders, albeit in a back-up role to RB Rashad Jennings (5.1 yards per carry) for now.

I’ve already picked the Cowboys in this matchup as 9.5-point home faves (+102), and I’m sticking with that recommendation at Dallas –7.5. Fargo Strut~! However, I might be a little more interested in the UNDER with the NFL totals rising from 45.5 points to 48 points. This is the biggest total the Raiders (UNDER 6-4-1) have seen since Week 3 in Denver, and while the Cowboys (6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS) are a solid No. 12 on the offensive efficiency charts, they’re not Denver.

NFL Pick: Take UNDER 48 at SIA

[gameodds]16/227045/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds] 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

And for dessert, we’ve got a frozen treat for you. The Steelers (5-6 SU and ATS) and the Ravens (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) are going to play Thursday night in the aftermath of Gobblegeddon, aka Winter Storm Boreas. It’s going to be cold, but clear skies are also expected over Baltimore. This is a good spot to go with OVER 40 or 40.5, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, which means this is also a good spot to pick the favorites. 

In this case, the favorites are the Ravens at somewhere around a field goal. The NFL lines are dancing all around that number without committing to Baltimore –3 at the standard juice. Shop around for the best price as always; your best bargains will usually be found by taking on the extra chalk in exchange for a deal on the cranberry sauce – sorry, I mean vigorish. Must be Turkey Time. 

NFL Pick: Take the Ravens –3 (+105) at Bodog

[gameodds]16/227046/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]