Even though this game has no implications towards the standings, it does have some nice value associated with it, especially with the prop NFL odds. These particular props are courtesy of Bet365.
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Both of my props are player performance wagers tonight, and the first one is Texans’ QB Case Keenum. While Keenum has outplayed Matt Scahub since taking over the starting duties, he hasn’t been anything to get excited about. Tonight he has a passing yards total of 257.5, and I think the under has to be the play this evening.
The Jacksonville defense has been playing much better as of late, as they have won three of their last four games SU. Included in one of those wins was a game against the Texans two weeks ago in Houston. The Jags played great defense in that game, holding Keenum to only 169 yards passing. Keenum has topped 250 passing yards only once in the Texans’ last four games, and I doubt he will do it on the road here tonight against a warming Jacksonville defense.
On the entire season, the Jags are only giving up about 250 passing yards per game, and although a lot of teams have been running the ball against Jacksonville this season, I still think their secondary is getting better. Even if the Texans turn things around and gain a lead, it will be because their defense and running game, not the play of Keenum. I see Andre Johnson getting double covered all game, which will do two things; limit Keenum’s passing yards, and help us also cash this next prop.
My Pick: Case Keenum UNDER 257.5 passing yards (-120)
Andre Johnson is coming off a nice game of 8 receptions for 121 yards. However two weeks ago against the Jags, Johnson was limited to only two catches for 36 yards. While I doubt he only has two catches again, I don’t think Johnson is going to have a huge game. That is why I am on the under for his reception total, which sits at 6.5 on the NFL odds boards.
At -105, the under should have some nice value tonight. Either way this game goes, Johnson probably won’t go off tonight on the road. If the Texans are ahead, I expect plenty of running from Ben Tate and company, and if the Texans are playing from behind, it likely means that the Jags have done another good job of taking Johnson out of the game. Johnson seems to be alternating good and bad games as of late, and after last week’s performance, he is due for a regression.
Even though this stat is somewhat skewed because of how much teams run against the Jags, it is interesting to note that Jacksonville has allowed only two receivers to have more than six catches in a game this season. Once was last week against Josh Gordon, but at this stage of their careers, Gordon is a better receiver than Johnson.
I see five or six catches for AJ tonight, but not more than that. Keenum on the road is a wildcard, as is the rapidly improving Jags defense. Take the under with his reception total.My Pick: Andre Johnson UNDER 6.5 receptions (-105)