NFL Picks: Texans vs. Chiefs in Week 7

Joe Freda

Thursday, October 17, 2013 4:04 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013 4:04 PM GMT

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans have had opposite seasons at NFL betting windows, notching spread records of 5-1 and 0-6, respectively. How will these records change after this Sunday's encounter? Is there money to be made betting this game?

Read our Daily NFL Week 7 Betting Odds Report for a breakdown of this week's games!

Sunday’s Week 7 slate has the foes meeting at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have held rivals to 10 PPG. Will this sports betting trend continue this weekend?

Chiefs, Charles stay unbeaten

Kansas City held off the Oakland Raiders in last weekend’s 24-7 victory, cashing as a 7.5-point home favorite. Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles took in two touchdowns, while safety Husain Abdullah returned one of his side’s three interceptions for a late score.

Charles led his offense in rushing and receiving, combining for 128 yards on 22 carries and five catches. Kansas City’s Alex Smith connected 14-of-31 passes under center, while adding four keepers for 29 yards.

Kansas City’s defense came away with 10 sacks, keeping Oakland out of the red zone in its 34 minutes of possession. The battle’s combined 31 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 41, moving the ‘Under’ to 5-1 in the Chiefs’ six contests.

Texans thrashed at home

Houston logged its fourth straight loss on the same card, falling as 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ in a 38-13 defeat to the St. Louis Rams. The Texans gave up touchdowns in all three of St. Louis’ red zone trips, while their offensive line gave up five sacks.

Houston’s Adrian Foster dashed for a season-high 141 yards (7 YPC), while backfield mate Ben Tate notched his squad’s sole touchdown as part of 10 carries. Texans quarterbacks Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates completed 27-of-38 strikes, with Yates tossing two interceptions.

The lopsided duel’s combined 51 points surged above the ‘total,’ lifting the ‘Over’ to 2-1 in the Texans’ last three weeks of action. Both sides united for 16 penalties (169 yards), while St. Louis returned two of Houston’s four turnovers for touchdowns.

Back the Chiefs as ‘chalk’

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Early betting lines on Kansas City opened as a 4.5-point home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 40. Early wagers on the Chiefs and ‘Under’ moved the NFL odds to six and 39.5, respectively.

I am laying the points with Kansas City for my NFL picks in this spot, looking for another sizable win from Andy Reid’s club.

The Chiefs have smothered foes, giving up a stingy 306.3 YPG – ranking third against the pass (189.7 YPG). Kansas City’s Justin Houston and Tampa Hali have united for 17 sacks, while they and their mates have held opposing offenses to a 20-for-83 mark (24.1 percent) in third-down conversions.

Houston has seen its octane dip, notching a meager 11.2 PPG in its last four contests. Schaub and Co. have logged a 0-7 ATS mark in spots following its most recent losses by more than 14 points, with Kansas City’s environment being an unlikely place to break that skid.

Chiefs back Jamaal Charles can match Houston’s running game from Adrian Foster, surging for 343 rushing yards through his last four outings. Kansas City continues to remain undervalued despite its winning streak, while Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four road duels against foes with winning home records.

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NFL Pick: Take the Kansas City Chiefs minus the 6 points, at Bet365

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