NFL Picks: Texans vs. 49ers Betting the Total

David Lawrence

Wednesday, October 2, 2013 2:33 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2013 2:33 PM GMT

Sunday in Week 5 is going to be a great day of football, as several playoff contending teams are set to face off in crucial games. Let's review the NFL odds for our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Texans vs. 49ers total pick

One of those is an inter-conference showdown on Sunday evening between the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. The NFL Odds for this one have opened in favor of the 49ers at -6 ½, with a total of 41 ½. It’s time to take a look at that total, and see if there is any extra value poking out of this Sunday night primetime battle.

Niners’ OVER-rated

While they haven’t played very well so far this season, injuries and inconsistency are two correctable things the Niners can fix, and after their blowout versus the Rams last week, they have another shot at righting the ship this week. While I don’t think they are overrated, the Niners have been very good at cashing the over ever since Colin Kaepernick took over the starting quarterback duties.

Before Kaepernick, the Niners played slow and methodical, but now they can play fast, and it’s helping NFL bettors cash tickets on them. Nine of the last eleven games overall for the Niners have gone over the total. Both of those unders have come this season as well, which means that the Niners cashed the over seven straight times heading into this season. The Niners are also 7-1 cashing the over in their last eight home games. Needless to say, I think the trends are on the side of the over.

Undervalued 

The total for this game opened at 42 ½, but has quickly been bet down to 41 ½. While some are expecting a lower scoring game apparently, I see it the opposite way, and that’s why I am taking the over with these two teams.

Both teams have radically undervalued offenses, and while most are looking at how good the defenses are for these teams, we have to remember that Sunday and Monday night games are normally high scoring. So far this season, Sunday and Monday night games have cashed the over at 7-2, with the last four in a row (Weeks 3 and 4) cashing the over as well. 

We also have to remember that both of these defenses are less than 100%. Patrick Willis and Nnamdi Asomugha both missed the Niners’ last game against the Rams, and although there has been ample time for both to start getting back in the action, there has been no reports either positive or negative about either’s status for Sunday night.

Let's have a peek at the Opening Odds Report~


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The Sharp Pick 

Seeing as the Niners’ defense is banged up and that they have been cashing the over with great frequency recently, I am going with the over in this game. The total of 41 ½ at sportsbooks like Pinnacle, Bookmaker and Heritage are giving NFL bettors extreme over value for there sports picks. The Texans should be able to pass on the Niners, and Arian Foster will likely get plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Along with the over starting to look like the trend on the night primetime games, I don’t see any reason why Week 5 can’t be more of the same. Take the over between these two teams, and add it to your NFL picks for Week 5.

My Pick: ‘Over’ 41 ½ at William Hill

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