NFL Picks: Texans vs. 49ers spread pick
The NFL Odds for this one have yet to settle, but as of now, the spread looks like it’s sticking around an average of -6 in favor of the 49ers. With all of their injuries, will the Niners be able to cover against the Texans here, or will Houston blow another game this week, much like they did against Seattle in Week 4? After already giving my total pick for this game, it’s time to reveal my NFL pick on the spread.
Sunday’s inactive player list is normally a must see once it comes out for the first set of games, but for the night cap, we won’t know who among the inactive players from both sides until 7 PM EST at the earliest. Potentially the Niners, it’s a long list.
The Niners have six or seven starters questionable to play in this game, and while I would bet that most suit up, even the one’s that do are likely not yet 100%. Their starting two defensive tackles, and two of their best three corners are all listed as questionable, despite practicing on a limited basis Friday. It seems as if Patrick Willis will be back for sure, and most of the others it seems like the questionable tag is a formality. However, crazier things have happened, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a starter or two sit for the Niners.
The Texans don’t have the levels of injury that San Francisco does, but they are dealing with some problems to starters. Andre Johnson was great last week playing on his shin injury, and all indications out of California is that he will play despite the questionable tag. Also, tackle Duane Brown took part in practice this week for the first time after missing the last two weeks with a toe injury. This is huge news for Matt Schaub and definitely Arian Foster.
All of this considered, I am favoring the road underdogs here. We’ve already seen that the Niners are beatable at home, and the Texans are mad from last week. Plus, they are overdue for an betting odds win ATS.
The Sharp Pick
The key to this game for Houston will be Schaub. Houston could very well be 3-1 SU if it wasn’t for a bad interception late in the game last week against Seattle. If Schaub can play with accuracy and poise, (and definitely not turn the ball over) the Texans could win this game outright. However on the road in San Francisco will be troublesome. Lucky for Schaub and the Texans, is the Niners are so hurt right now, the possibility of them being the 49ers that got to the Super Bowl last season is slim.
Houston’s defense can hold down Colin Kaepernick in this game, and it will make the Niners a one-dimensional football team. Houston is ranked #1 through four games against opposing passing offense. The Texans have only been giving up 141 yards per game through the air through four games, and they have not faced poor offenses either.
I think this will end up a very close game, and that’s why I am taking Houston here. They are extremely undervalued right now because of their 0-4 ATS record so far this season, but the situation calls for the Texans. It’s plain and simple. With up to 25% of San Francisco’s starters possibly being game time decisions, or at the very least not 100%, there is no way I could justify making the 49ers a touchdown favorite right now. I see a narrow win for the Niners in this one, 24-21, and a Texans cover. Take the points for your sports picks and look for the Texans to get their first ATS win of the season.
My Pick: Texans +6