The Tennessee Titans could end up being one of the most undervalued teams this season so, naturally, looking into their season wins future odds this offseason could give us an idea as to how good the sports books think they will really be. LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Titans priced in at 6.5 wins this upcoming season, and with both sides of the bet priced at -110. Will they worthy of your NFL picks?
Don't forget to check out our full AFC South team season wins report!
Tennessee’s strength of schedule this season is not that bad, and it gets better because they play in the AFC South. The Titans rank 23rd in the NFL and strength of schedule, and if they can weather an early part of their schedule, I love the over this season with Tennessee. They open up at Pittsburgh and then Houston on the road to start the season, before opening up at home against the Chargers in Week 3. If those three games weren’t bad enough, in Weeks 6 and 7 they play at Seattle and at home against the 49ers.
Yes, their schedule evens out in the final nine games of the season; but even if they go 2-5 SU in their first seven games (I seriously don’t think that will happen as in Weeks 3-5 they play the Chargers, Jets and Chiefs at home, all winnable games), I think they can still turn it around and win five of their last nine to cover the over. The toughest game they will have after their bye week is the Broncos on the road in Week 14, but luckily they play the Texans in Week 17, and by then Houston will likely be resting for the playoffs.
How does Tennessee compare to the rest of the AFC South this season?
Pittsburgh is going to be a nice test for this Tennessee team in Week 1. I could compare it to an old timer in boxing going up against a young, up and comer. The Steelers are home favorites of -6.5, with a total of 43.5. The Titans were one of the weakest teams on the road last season going 2-6 ATS when they were away from Nashville, but are they +6.5 points worse than the Steelers this season?
I don’t think so, and I like the chances of the Titans to keep it close for their first game of the season. Their defense will be much better than the unit they put on the field in 2012, and the Steelers are pretty overvalued this season in my eyes. The Titans have the weapons to keep up with Pittsburgh now that they fixed their offensive line issues, and I see this game being within six points.
The Sharp Pick
I also like the Titans to have a 7-9 SU or better season in 2013, making the over a solid future odds bet in the NFL odds. I see Tennessee going 3-4 SU before their bye week and, as long as they go at least 4-5 SU to end their season, (assuming they beat Jacksonville twice, the Raiders and the Cardinals) the over at -110 has a lot of value as a sports pick. No longer will the Titans rank in the bottom third of the league in offense and defense. I see a solid defensive unit, and an offense that runs the ball well in Cashville this season.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 6.5 -110
Week 1 Lean: Titans +7 at William Hill