Later, I will give my player prop picks for this week, but let’s see if we can uncover some value in the team prop area. Both of these NFL Odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook.
The touchdown total has been a blessing a curse for me this season, but isn’t that almost every play at some point? This week the Steelers come off of their big home win against the Ravens in Week 7, and now they have to travel all the way across the country to play the Raiders. Oakland was watching Pittsburgh and the rest of the NFL from their couches this past week, and coming off of their bye week, I think the Raiders are going to give the Steelers a run for their money.
At 4.5 touchdowns, I don’t see more than four being scored in this one, making the under at +110 look pretty valuable. With Oakland rested, they are going to get a ton of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger in this one, which will likely lead to not a whole lot of points for Pittsburgh. Teams traveling across country haven’t been horrible so far this season, but as the season wears on, more and more we will see teams that travel over 2000 miles start to show some signs of fatigue.
Both of these defenses have been playing well this season, and while the Raiders will likely be getting pressure on Roethlisberger, the Steelers will be able to take away most of the downfield game of Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders’ offense. This could turn into a bruising game, and those types of games are almost never high scoring. Take the under.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 4.5 TDs (+110)
The Browns head into Kansas City this week and for the third or maybe even fourth time this season, the Browns will be starting a new quarterback. Jason Campbell will be under center for Cleveland this week, and he has a really tough task of trying to score on one of the better defenses in the entire NFL.
With that, I sincerely doubt the Browns score many touchdowns this week, and that’s why I think the field goal total for this one is the play of the game. Both of these teams have very capable kickers, and with both teams playing very good defense so far this season, the over seems like the play. It would not surprise me one bit to see the Browns held without an offensive touchdown this week in Arrowhead.
The Browns will be able to at the very least slow down the Chiefs’ offense, and I could easily see Ryan Succop kicking two or three field goals for our NFL picks in KC here. On the flip side, Campbell isn’t really known for his downfield passing, so it seems as if both offenses will be working slowly, and playing this game pretty conservatively. I see four or more field goals in this one, so take the over and add it to your Week 8 NFL Picks.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 3.5 FGs (+110)[gameodds]16/226977/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]