Tampa Bay Bucs future odds update
The Bucs are an interesting team to look at this offseason, and even though they wont have any value in betting them with their future odds, I believe like so many other teams, the odds show us how much a team will be under or overvalued this upcoming season.
At first glance at the Bucs, you do notice they have a nice selection of talent on both sides of the ball, and you think they are appropriately priced in the NFL future odds. However this offseason is going to tell us a lot about whether or not the Bucs are overvalued and whether or not they will continue to be overvalued. Bet365 has the Bucks at 40/1 along with six other teams, and I think it’s safe to say that all six of those teams are better than the Bucs. Along with the fact that the Bucs were pretty undervalued last season, I think that will make them a sell-worthy team now and in the future.
The Bucs drafted Mike Glennon from NC State early in the 3rd round this year and with Josh Freeman as the “starter,” currently; I expect a quarterback situation that is more than just a competition. This is going to cause some uncertainty and likely a broken locker room split in a worst-case scenario, and that is not going to bode well for the Bucs’ future odds or game odds. Tampa was 9-5-2 ATS last season and despite being the best team against the run, they really weren’t good in any other area.
I think we have to fade the Bucs this season. I don’t see them surpassing their 7-9 SU record from 2012 and almost certainly don’t see them covering nine spreads and only losing five this season. Tampa is going to be Tampa. They will probably once again be the textbook definition of average both ATS and SU in 2013.
I can definitely see some value in the Bucs if them being overvalued in the future odds is just an anomaly, but once again it all boils down to coaching and the quarterback situation. This division is too tough to try and rebuild on the fly. All three teams in this division are all capable of beating the Bucs with relative ease, and if indeed the Bucs are trying to rebuild on the fly, I can’t see much value as it stands now.
We need to watch the Bucs carefully in the preseason to get a glimpse of what the quarterback situation is going to look like, but if there is solidarity at that position once the season starts, the Bucs might need revisiting. However as far as my NFL picks stand now, the uncertainty is leading me other directions. The talent is there, but I’m still hesitant.