NFL Picks: Take the Packers -5 Over Cowboys

Jeff Grant

Friday, January 9, 2015 3:23 PM GMT

Green Bay’s point differential at home was the highest in franchise history this season, which makes it a top NFL betting pick against Dallas in the NFC playoffs.

Road Warriors
Dallas averaged a league-best 34.4 points in winning all eight of its regular season games away from AT&T Stadium, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL odds, as it hits the road after advancing past the Detroit Lions last week.

The Cowboys have fallen in defeat in their last six road playoff games, which happens to be the fourth longest active streak of its kind, with the Lions owning the top spot in dropping its last 10 away from the Motor City.

With the weather forecast suggesting game-time highs in the low-20s, it’s important to point out that quarterback Tony Romo has lost two of his three career starts with temperatures at or below freezing.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 9-11 SU and 14-6 ATS as underdogs.

 

Dominant
Green Bay outscored opponents by 155 points in producing a perfect 8-0 SU home record during the regular season, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL predictions, as Aaron Rodgers recorded a 133.2 passer rating in that situation—highest in league history.

Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 54-17-1 SU at Lambeau Field, with the .757 win percentage ranking third in pro football over that span.

Rodgers and his teammates like to start fast at any venue, as they led all teams in averaging 19.4 points per game in the first half.

Sports bettors will find that the franchise is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points since the start of the 2012 campaign.

Follow Our Cowboys/Packers Betting Guide

Turnover Battle
The Cowboys have won all 11 games when tying or winning the turnover battle, but put together a 2-4 SU record when losing that all-important statistical category.

Dallas must win this category in order to advance to the NFC Championship Game, but it faces an opponent that tied for first in the league with a plus-nine margin at home this season.

 

Keying On Matthews
The Packers have yielded an average of just 86.4 rushing yards since moving pass-rushing linebacker Clay Matthews into the middle of the defense, which is much better than the 153.5 figure they surrendered before the adjustment.

Matthews is a big reason why Green Bay finished the regular season tied for ninth in the NFL with 29 takeaways, with 15 of those converted into touchdowns on the other end.

Here's Another Capper's Take on Cowboys/Packers

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Packers as one of their NFL picks, as they’ve gone 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 home games.

NFL Pick:  Green Bay Packers -5 at Bookmaker