NFL Picks: Take a Contrarian Approach & Bet on Jaguars +10.0 over Colts

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 12:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 12:51 PM UTC

The Jags visit Indy to try and snap a 5 game losing streak against the Colts in Week 4.  Jacksonville is +10 point road dogs, a seemingly risky NFL pick, but are the books giving away too much?

Jags look to end Five Game Losing Streak to Colts
The Colts and Jaguars will square off on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis at 1:00 PM ET. According to early NFL betting odds, Indianapolis is a 9.0 to 10.0 point favorite, and the total is either 47.5 or 48.0 depending on which sportsbook you’re looking at. Indianapolis has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last five against their division rival (Jaguars), and won those contests by an average of 23.6 points per game. These teams have also seen seven of their last eight meetings go under the total.


Jags Road Woes
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone an abysmal 5-30 in their last thirty-five on the road, and that includes losing their previous ten away games. The Jaguars road futility was further exemplified in last week’s 51-17 loss at New England. The Patriots scored on all nine of their offensive possessions in that contest. The road hasn’t been the only place that Jacksonville has struggled. They’ve gone a dismal 9-38 in their previous forty-seven game overall, and that includes an awful 17-29-2 ATS.


AFC South Dominance and Supremacy
Indianapolis was in danger of not only starting the season 0-3 in last Sunday’s game at Tennessee, but it would’ve also ended 13-0 run against AFC South opponents. That was looking like a harsh reality considering they trailed Tennessee 27-14 almost midway through the 4th quarter. However, they rallied for 21 unanswered points in the final eight minutes to take a 35-27 lead, and then stopped Tennessee’s two point conversion with less than a minute left to escape with a 35-33 win. Their divisional win streak now stands at fourteen straight, and they’ve also gone an extremely profitable 11-1-2 ATS in those contests. Ironically, last week was the only non-cover in that sequence, coming up short as a 3.0 point favorite. The Colts have won eight straight division home games, and are 7-0-1 ATS during that stretch.


Final Analysis
This may sound a bit hypocritical but follow me on this please. Forget everything you just read. I’m not writing an autobiography that’s cut and dried. We’re discussing sports betting which encompasses a plethora of intangibles and variables. Let me be clear before giving you my opinion on the point spread in this game. I won’t be wagering on this contest personally. One side of the coin say that Indianapolis should be an absolute rock solid pick in this contest, and the other says it looks way too easy. When this thought process occurs, more times than not the contrarian approach has served me well. Going against all sane and logical thinking, I’ll have a small lean on the road underdog for one of my opinionated NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Play on Jacksonville +10.0 (-119) at Pinnacle

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