NFL Picks: Take a Chance on Our Top Dogs Getting No Love Week 10

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 12:19 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 12:19 PM GMT

The best part about beating the books in the NFL is you know going in most games are coming down to last possession against the betting odds so your emotions can mostly be held in check.

Last week I had two winners here with Minnesota and Chicago and both were in balance late in the games. As a football handicapper I have adopted what Tom Brady and other former players I have heard say, "Any win in the NFL is a good win". Nobody likes bad beats, but if you do your home work and follow the right numbers without too much bad luck, profits can come your way.

For this article and video, I am now 17-10 ATS on the year for sports picks, 62.9 percent. The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of Heritagesports.eu.

 

Top Dog - Situation Favors Fins in Philly
The Eagles are back to .500 by winning three of four, with the running game really clicking at 172.5 yards per contest in this stretch and QB Sam Bradford getting comfortable with his pass catchers.

After hot start, the shine is off the Dan Campbell apple with 26 and 16 point losses for Miami and more than one rumor hill has the Dolphins pursuing Sean Payton of New Orleans as next head coach.

Philadelphia is playing better than early in the season and is probably a justifiable 6.5-point favorite, but the Dolphins are so good as non-division road underdogs the last 11 years at 29-14-2 ATS, impossible for me to ignore for NFL picks.

NFL Pick:Miami Dolphins +6.5 -115 at Bookmaker

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Top Dog - Chicago Gladly Uses the Points
The Chicago Bears might only be 3-5, but their improved play has them at 4-1 ATS in recent games and it's not luck. Coach John Fox and his offensive coaches have basically figured out how to make Jay Cutler somewhat less mistake-prone by having him make quick reads and getting rid of the ball, without sitting in the pocket and making late throws over the middle. In spite of youth and not necessarily a great deal of talent, Fox has his defensive group up to 9th in total defense.

Look for the Bears to take Minnesota's lead and sell out to stop the Rams Todd Gurley and see if QB Nick Foles can beat them through the air. Also long as Chicago is catching seven or more points, love the fact a John Fox coached-team is 10-2 ATS away off an upset win as a road underdog.

NFL Pick: Chicago Bears +7.5 (-123) at Pinnacle

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Top Dog - Giants Has Wacky Thing on New England
I will start this by saying, I will either be correct or so wrong I will be mocked on social media, so be it. With the way New England is playing , it makes no sense to back the NFL's worst defense in New York, against the top scoring offense in the league in New England.

But sometimes these things don't work out. How do you explain the Giants beating the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl and being 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) against Bill Belichick since he joined New England.

Every team has their kryptonite and New York has been a conundrum for the Patriots. The G-Men are 23-12 ATS versus excellent throwing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt under Tom Coughlin. Sometimes it does not have to make sense and I'll take a touchdown or more with New York as top dog.

NFL Pick: New York Giants +8.5 (-130) at 5Dimes

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