NFL Picks: Take 49ers +6 to Cover Against Seahawks Thursday Night

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 5:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 5:45 PM UTC

In what has historically been a low scoring series, our NFL handicapper analyzes the Thursday Night matchup between NFC West rivals San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.


***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night Preview***
***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night Total Pick***
***49ers Player Props for Thursday Night Football***
***Seahakws Player Props for Thursday Night Football***

In this Thursday Night NFL matchup, we have a team that was supposed to be bad at 2-4 in the San Francisco 49ers meeting up with a team that was supposed to be good in the 2-4 Seattle Seahawks. This has created two distinctly different emotions in those respective locker rooms. In one case, you have hope. The 49ers are really still in it in the NFC West… somehow. The Seattle Seahawk locker room, on the other hand, likely reeks of desperation.

For the fourth time this season the Seahawks have given up a 4th quarter lead to lose a game. In all reality, they are a handful of plays away from being 6-0 this season. Of course, they are a questionable call away in that Detroit game to being 1-5 as well. Is this lucky bounces finally going the opponent’s way, or are the Seahawks truly playing to their 2-4 record? One thing is certain, when it comes to the 4th quarter of every game this year, with the lone exception being the 26-0 shutout vs. Chicago, the Seahawks defense is completely gassed. This isn’t a time of possession issue either, it’s an issue of depth on the defensive line and in the secondary.

At some point there are so many departures to free agency and injuries that snap counts get out of hand. The secondary of Seattle is missing Jeremy Lane, Marcus Burley, and Tharold Simon to injury. Last year’s starting cornerback, Byron Maxwell, has been replaced by Cary Williams; and he has been picked on consistently by opposing QB’s in the first six weeks. The defensive front is missing Jordan Hill, Frank Clark, and Demarcus Dobbs lately as well. The linebacker corps missed All-Pro Bobby Wagner last week against Carolina, and replacement Kevin Pierre-Louis got burned in coverage multiple times by tight ends. At the end of the day, Seattle’s ineffectiveness in putting together consistent quarterback pressure from the front 7 at the end of games has allowed opposing teams to throw the ball at will against a soft zone defense.

Speaking of quarterback pressure, the experiment that is the Seattle offensive line has been a joke. Russell Wilson has been pressured at historic rate, hiding the fact that he is actually playing fairly well this season. No matter, if you are running for your life most of the time it is hard to develop a rhythm on offense. The Seahawks lead the league in sacks allowed at 26, or 4.5 sacks per game.

But even though the Seahawks look bad on offense some of the time, the San Francisco 49ers are bad. Averaging 16.7 PPG, the 49ers are dead last in the league in scoring even after winning 25-20 against Baltimore last week. San Francisco can’t sustain drives, have a terrible 3rd down conversion rate of 40.7%, and are 29th in the NFL in time of possession.

The 49er defense is dead last in the league at giving up 306.2 YPG passing. Only the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams are worse in completion percentage allowed at 69.6%

In this matchup between the hopeful and desperate we have the team that was supposed to be good in Seattle favored by 6 points on the road at multiple books. Off of a short week, this could be an ugly, poorly executed game on both sides. It’s even a shorter week for the 49ers, as they had to fly back from Baltimore on Sunday night. In a potentially low scoring game, these teams haven’t exceeded 24 points combined in their last two matchups and the Under is 5-0 in the last five, those 6 points given to the home dog have considerable value. Even if Seattle wins - their 4th quarter antics lately scream of a back door cover. For this reason, I’m taking San Francisco +6 as one of my Week 7 NFL Picks.

NFL Pick: San Francisco +6 (+100) at Pinnacle

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