NFL Picks: Take 49ers (+11.5) Against Cardinals as Week 12's Big Dog

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 8:45 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 8:45 PM GMT

Sometimes chances must be taken in order to maximize positive outcome.  Case in point, we examine the Cardinals vs. 49ers game and San Fran is our NFL pick despite thier deep underdog status.

Arizona Cardinals (-11.5) vs. San Fran 49ers
The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers for a 4:05 ET kick.  Though I have termed it our BIG DOG play for week 12  it could have just as easily been our contrarian pick week 12.  For, no one will be interested in backing the 3-7 SU 49ers against the 8-2 SU Arizona Cardinals. 

Last week, Arizona held on for a 34-31 victory against the Bengals team who began the year 8-0 SU.  It was a hard fought game in which yardage was virtually even.  That game came on the heels of a huge divisional victory against Seattle (39-32).  Combined with their (34-20) win at Cleveland, it means Arizona has now topped the 30 point mark, 3 consecutive weeks.  That is never a positive sign for a team who is a double digit, divisional road favorite in the next contest.  Adding to the Arizona situational conundrum this week, is their low motivation for this opponent, knowing they beat the 49ers at home in Week 3 by a count of (47-7).  Further muddying the waters is the fact the Cards have only home loss revenge next week for the (24-22) defeat at the hands of St. Louis in Week 4.  It all adds up to a supreme letdown at an inflated price for Arizona. 

The 49ers were badly out-statted as our big dog last week, despite having every opportunity to cover a 13 point number at Seattle in their eventual (29-13) loss.  That contest saw the 49ers outrushed 44/255 to 16/59.  It was all part of allowing the Seahawks to gain 508 total yards.  But, the combination of that embarrassing loss last week, along with the motivation of 40 point divisional revenge, should give the 49ers all the motivation they need this Sunday.  With QB Kaepernick out for the season (shoulder), the 49ers have put the ball in the hands of QB Gabbert, who has played with poise at his time at the helm.  Though the 49ers have been beaten badly on several occasions this year, we must note they are indeed 3-2 SU ATS as home underdog this year, including victories against winning teams, Minnesota and Atlanta.  Catching the Cards at an inflated price in an ideal situation makes this an outstanding spot to consider playing San Francisco 

I invite you to put the NFL Odds in your favor and join me in my NFL Pick on the San Francisco 49ers as the BIG DOG pick.

NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers +11.5 (-135) at 5Dimes

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