Swinger's Record (14-13, -7.30 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
Gamblers by nature rue the losses much deeper than they savor the wins. That's one of the reasons why these professional scamdicappers always crow about how sharp they are and how much money they've made their clients. Because the losing grates on them so much and the vitriol from their clients is so fierce when their Pick of the Millennium tanks that they go overboard when they do connect. That and the fact that they want to drum up more business.
Fortunately I don't charge for my picks because it's tough enough to write this column after a miserable week, let alone charging money for that garbage. However, when you go 3-0 last week and 3-0 like I did three weeks ago, it's a nice reprieve from the hamster wheel that is the NFL season.
Last week there was only one side on the entire board that I liked and it clicked with the Tennessee Titans securing a 28-21 road victory over the St. Louis Rams as three-point chalk in NFL odds. We then cashed with two totals - Under in the KC/Buffalo game and Over in the Chargers/Redskins clash. After the dust settled we picked up nine units and remarkably find ourselves still behind the eight-ball, down over seven units on the season.
Let's pull back in front with another sterling effort in our NFL picks this week and bang your bookmaker big time baby!
Jaguars at Titans
Perhaps you're not aware but the Jaguars are awful. Yes, I know you knew that but just wanted to get that right out there once you read that I believe there's value on the lowly Jags in this spot. The Titans have a short week as they will gear up for a huge game on Thursday with their AFC South rivals and the team they are trying to catch, the Indianapolis Colts. This game is going to be an afterthought even while they're playing. This is the proverbial trap game kids and if the Jags were not as putrid as they are, I might make this a maximum play in my NFL picks.
So let's restrain ourselves a bit and cut down the unit size on this one but still confident that Chad Henne makes the Jags a better team than the epic failure that has been Blaine Gabbert. Hell, I'd be an upgrade at quarterback over Gabbert and I throw like a damn pansy. Let's take the big head start the oddsmakers are giving us and look for the Titans to sleepwalk through this one and watch the Jags hang around.
Play the Jags +14 (-130 buying one point) for 3 units at Bet365.com in your NFL picks.
I've no doubt chased my tail on the Falcons this season and was buried a few weeks ago when I advised a max unit play on them as +3 point dogs in the desert against the Cardinals. They've destroyed me and perhaps coming back to this poison well reeks of throwing good money after bad but I don't think so. Not in this spot.
The Seahawks will be down for this game after having to rally from way back against the lowly Bucs. But if you've been paying attention you know that while Seattle has been winning games they've been losing barrels of money for their backers. The Seahawks have won four of their last five but have failed to cover in four of those five contests.
A healthy Steven Jackson in the backfield will give Matt Ryan time to look for targets and the home field advantage will help the Falcons keep this one close.
Play Atlanta +4 ½ for 3 units at WilliamHill.com
The Panthers have beaten nobody while the Niners remain one of the premier teams in the league and are coming off a bye week. Carolina looks scary when they're pounding the Giants, Vikings, Bucs and Rams of the world but when they face the iron it's a different story.
The only thing that scares me about this line is that it just looks to damn low. San Francisco has crushed in their last five games, covering in NFL odds against each and every opponent. I realize Carolina has a ferocious front seven but Colin Kaepernick will keep them honest with his feet.
The Woodman's Corner (5-4, +0.6 units) - Guest Handicapper
The Woodman clicked again last week with a play on the Colts -2 and moved into the black for the year. This week he eschews the chalk and goes back to familiar underdog territory with a pick that I like as well, the Oakland Raiders +7 at WilliamHill.com.