NFL Picks: Swinger's Week 4 Best Bets to Keep Your Wallet Full

Swinging Johnson

Friday, October 2, 2015 1:02 PM GMT

Last week went 2-2 yet again as totals have been the bane of our existence. But now we peruse the NFL odds for Week 4 and see if Swinger can get a clean sweep this week.

2015 NFL Record (7-5 ATS)
If you follow this space on a weekly basis you know two things. The first is that I did the splits last week (2-2 ATS) as the totals continue to be the bane of my existence with no winners in three attempts this season. You also know that I write two articles each week that include a total of four picks. My NFL picks earlier this week were the Buffalo Bills -5 and Under 48 ½ in the Packers/49'ers game. Let's get down to business shall we?

 

Rams vs. Cardinals (O/U 42)
Carson Palmer is ablaze this season. He is the field general in an offense that is averaging 42 points per game which leads the NFL. They are ranked 9th in passing and 11th in rushing which means they are a balanced attack to be sure. Larry Fitzgerald looks like a kid again as he has been the object of Palmer's passing affection thus far delivering five of his nine touchdown passes to the talented veteran wideout.

On Sunday they face their divisional rivals the St. Louis Rams. The Rams' offense is anemic and their defense is middling. The St. Louis offense averages 16.7 points per game while the Arizona defense surrenders just 16.3. That is the huge fly in this ointment if you are inclined to go over the posted total as I am. We just know the Cards are going to put up points in bunches but can the Rams hang tough? The short answer is yes which is why I am reluctant to include Arizona as one of my NFL picks this week. As good as the Redbirds have looked I don't believe they are that good. They have had the luxury of playing New Orleans, Chicago and San Francisco. Not exactly a triumvirate of NFL powerhouses.

However the big question here is how many points will Jeff Fisher's offense score? They have scored 16 over the last two games which does not bode well. However it was only three weeks ago when they dropped 34 on the Seattle Seahawks. They can score ladies and gentlemen and if you think this Arizona defense is All-World then you are overstating their success. Look, I like Arizona don't get me wrong but if I had to decide whether their offense or defense will stand the test of time throughout the season I would cast my lot with the offense.

Here are a few stats:

Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last five games following an ATS win.

Over is 4-0 in Arizona's last four games.

Over is 8-2 in Rams last 10 games in October.

Over is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points

Over is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

NFL Pick: Play OVER 42 at Pinnacle

 

Lions vs. Seahawks (-9 ½ )
This is a simple case of an offensive line being unable or unwilling to protect their quarterback versus a defensive line that can move mountains when necessary. Who loses? Matthew Stafford. I cannot envision a world where the hapless Lions, with a banged up QB that has zero protection, is going to avoid getting their collective asses kicked by a ferocious defense like Seattle's.

Oh and by the way Kam Chancellor is back finally reuniting the Legion of Boom. In his first game since returning from a contract holdout his presence didn't show up in the box score but in this very telling stat. Last week the Bears averaged 5.4 yards per-play when Chancellor was on the sidelines and 3.1 when he was in the game. It is no wonder that the Seahawks had little trouble covering the NFL odds as 16-point home chalk in their 26-0 blanking of Chicago. Chancellor makes a huge difference and the Lions will have their work cut out scoring against a defense like Seattle's.

Conversely, Seahawks' quarterback Russell Wilson will have all the time in the world to choose his targets and aim carefully. The Lions have no pass rush to speak of and the Beast Marshawn Lynch will shred the Detroit defensive front when Wilson is not torching the Lions' beleaguered secondary.

Here are some betting trends to consider:

Seahawks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games

NFL Pick: Seahawks -9 ½ (-115) at The Greek

 

Giants vs. Bills (-5 ½)
The Giants have yet to face a defense like the one that will greet them in Buffalo this weekend. Despite the fact there are betting trends that would suggest Big Blue is the right side this week; like the Giants are 42-24 against the spread as visitors since 2006 unless favored by 3.5 or more or teams that were 0-2 and notched their first victory in Week 3 are 32-10 ATS the following game in the underdog role, we’re not going there.

I am not going to be held hostage to stats that date back almost a decade ago and further. I am looking at the here and now. The Bills dropped 27 points on the Colts, 32 on the Patriots and most recently 41 on the Dolphins. Is the Giants’ defense, ranked 16th in points allowed, really any better than the three aforementioned teams? Maybe a scooch better…maybe. But how will the Giants run on this Bills’ defense? They won’t. Therefore Eli will have to throw but I can assure you with this menacing Buffalo defensive front he won’t have the time to target a big play receiver like Odell Beckham Jr. streaking down the sidelines. Manning is going to have to dink and dunk his way down the field which means short crossing routes and that’s not Beckham’s world.

I am a bit surprised to see the Bills as less than touchdown favorites here but some would suggest that defeating a divisional rival (Miami Dolphins) the week before will make them a bit disinterested in this affair on Sunday. I’m not going to bite because Rex Ryan’s honeymoon period with his new players is still in full bloom. They are buying what Sexy Rexy is selling and there is no doubt this defense is for real. The question is, can their offense ring up enough points on Sunday to cover the NFL odds? I think they can.

NFL Pick: Play Buffalo Bills -5 (-110) at Heritage

 

Packers vs. Niners (O/U 48½)
Based on what we have seen thus far it looks like the Green Bay Packers are just the latest high-flying offense coming to eviscerate the San Francisco 49’ers. After all the Packers have averaged 32 points per game (ranked 4th in the NFL) while the Niners have been giving up points in bunches over their last pair of games getting blitzed for a total of 90 points between the Steelers and Cardinals. Isn’t this just another perfect example of the 49’ers getting prepared for yet another slaughter?

I don’t think so. The Packers are on the road and that’s a big deal to Aaron and company. While they did cover the NFL odds in their first game against the Bears at Soldier Field with a 31-23 victory as six-point road chalk, there is a stat that says home field advantage historically means over five points to Green Bay where conventional wisdom holds that it is a blanket three points across the board for playing in front of the fan friendlies. In addition, the 49’ers are back home after getting wasted on the road. In their Week 1 opener they defeated the Vikings 20-3 and that defense looked just fine.

The Packers are also working on a short week and then had to travel west. Regardless how bad you believe Colin Kaepernick to be he will not throw four picks as he did against a decidedly better Cardinals’ defense than the one he will face on Sunday. The 49’ers will employ a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde to chew up the clock and keep Rodgers off the field. Of course the Packers will undoubtedly have their share of points against an anemic San Francisco defense but the grind-it-out style of football I see the Niners playing will keep this one low.

NFL Pick: Play UNDER 48½ at GTBets

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The Woodman’s Corner (2-1 ATS)
The Woodman looked like he was going to go 3-0 until the Cowboys melted like an ugly chick’s makeup on a hot summer’s day. Yes, the Boys did him no favors as they dropped a 39-28 shootout to the soaring Falcons.

But that was then and this is now. The Woodman has an affinity for long, tall Texans (normally of the female variety but you never know with him – he’s a little freaky) and this week he is betting the farm on the Houston Texans +6 ½ over the Falcons in Atlanta.

NFL Pick: Texans +6½ (-110) at BetOnline