NFL Picks: Swinger’s Top ATS Selections for Week 13

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, December 3, 2015 10:41 PM GMT

Swinger is back with his Week 13 NFL picks and is struggling to tread water. Let’s review what the NFL odds makers are offering and find out which teams are the sharp sides.

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2015 NFL Record (16-22-1 ATS)
So here’s the irony. Last week I was asked to pick every game on the board using the prevailing NFL odds. How did I do? Well just ask members of my football pool where I went a sizzling 13-3 ATS. So now you may ask how I did last week with my four best bets (not including a total in the Patriots/Broncos game that flamed). And here’s the irony –translated, the gut-wrenching reality of my Swinger’s NFL picks this season – two of the three losses that I experienced when picking the entire board were included in this weekly missive.

Yup, that’s right I had 13 wins and only three losses and I picked four sides last week and dontcha’ know I decided to include the Bills +7 and the Giants -2 ½. Of course, the Bills should have covered but if if’s and buts were candy and nuts what a fine, fine Christmas we’d have. My winners were the Texans over the Saints and Jets over the Dolphins yet provide small consolation. My under in the Patriots/Broncos game proved once again that I am the ultimate fade when it comes to totals this season. Let’s get it back this week.

 

Bengals vs. Browns +10 ½ (-135)
I understand your reluctance to follow me to hell with this pick. We have one of the best teams playing arguably the worst team with a volatile quarterback situation where it will either be the controversial Johnny Manziel or the milquetoast Austin Davis. But the thing is that the Browns often play the Bengals tough at home in front of an always rabid fan base in Cleveland. The last time these teams met when the home town Brownies were installed as the underdog was two years ago resulting in a 17-16 Cleveland victory.

You will no doubt recall that Cincinnati beat the Browns earlier this season by the score of 31-10 in the Queen City but that game was close until the end. Factor in that the Bengals’ Tyler Eifert will be out of this one and I can see the Browns hanging relatively close. Let’s not forget that Cincinnati could be overlooking this game as they prepare to face Pittsburgh in Week 14. Let the squares pound the Bengals and inflate this number for the sharps.

NFL Picks: Play Cleveland +10 ½ (-135) at 5Dimes

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Texans +3 (-125) vs. Bills
It’s a simple case of one team improving while the other is regressing. The Bills will want to run, run and run some more but the Texans will stop that rush stone cold. This Houston defense has finally morphed into what we believed it would be in the preseason and have allowed a mere 35 points over their last four games, all ATS covers by the way. And if the Bills can’t run we know they can’t pass as evidenced by their 28th ranked passing attack. I will grant you that the Texans offense doesn’t overwhelm me but give me a three-point head start and I will grab it in this matchup.

NFL Picks: Play the Texans +3 (-125) at GTBets

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Seahawks vs. Vikings (+1)
The public remains infatuated with the Seahawks (4-6-1 ATS) who were lucky to get the cover last week against the Steelers and were actually outgained by more than 100 yards. Seattle will be without star tight end Jimmy Graham in this one and the Vikings will run Adrian Peterson until his legs fall off and when they do it will be Teddy Bridgewater to Kyle Rudolph in a matchup that sees Seattle failing to effectively cover tight ends all season long. Seattle’s reign is over and the Vikings are an ascending power in the league right now.

NFL Picks: Play Minnesota +1 at Heritage

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Falcons (+1) vs. Buccaneers
This is a Week 8 rematch where the Falcons outgained the Bucs 496-290 yet lost the game 23-20. The Falcons have plenty of talent but their lack of discipline and propensity for mistakes has been an indictment of the coaching staff. This is not a bad team and despite the shame spiral they find themselves in Atlanta should get well in Tampa. They have failed to cover the number for seven straight weeks which is why the oddsmakers have installed this one as a virtual toss-up. The Bucs did not look good last week in their 25-12 loss to the Colts last week and this week should be no different.

NFL Picks: Play the Falcons +1 at Pinnacle

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Jets -1 (-125) vs. Giants
I will side with the Jets in this battle for New York. The Giants look as though they regressed last week against the Redskins and cannot stop a pass to save their lives. Their defense is allowing a league worst 309 yards passing and it just so happens that Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting his mojo on with four passing touchdowns last week in his team’s victory over the Dolphins. The Jets defense is tops in the league against the rush and 12th against the pass. Quite simply they are doing everything better than the Gee Men right now and this looks like a sharp spot to back the better team at virtual pick’em.

NFL Picks: Play the Jets -1 (-125) at 5Dimes

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The Woodman’s Corner (8-4 ATS)
The Woodman cashed yet again last week as he backed the Ravens over the Browns. He is a brave man to be sure and is going right back to that very same well by grabbing the points once again with the Baltimore Ravens. The man has been better than good this season and though this game is a pass for me I wouldn’t blame you if you followed this handicapping savant right into Cash City.

NFL Picks: Play the Ravens +4 at JustBet

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