NFL Picks: Swinger’s Top ATS & O/U Selections for Week 14

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, December 10, 2015 10:50 PM GMT

Swinger is back with his Week 14 NFL picks. Let's see Swinger get well this week with a few sharp sides and a white hot total.

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2015 NFL Record (17-26-1 ATS)
For one week - like maybe this week - I would eagerly trade hats with a scamdicapper of my choice and flat out lie about my record, ignore the losses and shout from the mountaintops about my lone Week 13 winner, the New York Jets. Hell, even the Jets needed a heroic comeback to tie in regulation and beat the Giants in overtime. Guys, it's been about the worst season I can remember but then again I've got Alzheimer's so who knows.

Alright kids, I will try to shed any vestige of regret, despair and waning confidence about my 1-3 ATS record last week and soldier on. Seriously, I have a can't miss total so if you're inclined to fade me, stay away from that one. Or don't - screw you. Time to get well, let's go!

 

Falcons +9 ½ vs. Panthers

NFL Picks: Play the Falcons +9½  (-120)
Best Odds Offered at 5Dimes

Talk about not learning your damn lesson, that describes me perfectly. The Falcons put a dagger through my heart last week when I backed them as slight road dogs over the Bucs. They had the game in hand but allowed Tampa to crawl back in and ultimately lost. But I'm not going to stay away because I'm mad at Matty Ice....Cold. No, I am simply going to look at their defense over the last six weeks and tell you they have allowed an average of only 19 points over that span.

In addition the Falcons have yet to lose a game by 10 points or more this season and are 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 7.5+ since 2009.  Sure the Panthers have Superman on their side and remain the only undefeated team in the league but let the squares hop all over Carolina because we see big points given to a team that, despite losing, hasn't surrendered many over the last several weeks.

 

Chargers +11 ½ (-135) vs. Chiefs

NFL Picks: Play the Chargers +11½ 
Best Odds Offered at 5Dimes

The Chargers to me are like chocolate bon bons to a fat chick. They are a guilty pleasure and I simply cannot stay away. What the hell is so pleasurable about a team with a 3-9 record and an only slightly better 4-8 ATS mark? I'm not sure but I think I am infatuated with Phillip Rivers and the fact that one day this underachieving pack of dogs will one day atone for their sins and I will be the Father Confessor to whom they confide as I ride them to Cash City.

Bottom line is that the Bolts are better on the road than at home where nobody watches them, cares about them or loves them. At some point San Diego will be without an NFL franchise and no one in sunny southern California will notice. Antonio Gates is healthy, Justin Houston of the Chiefs is out and that's a huge advantage for the Chargers. Those big wins for the Chiefs recently has been in large part due to their defense. If you are going to lay a big number with Alex Smith at the helm then I say think again.

 

Giants -1 vs. Dolphins

NFL Picks: Play the Giants -1 
Best Odds Offered at YouWager

The Dolphins pass rush has been inept ever since Cameron Wake went down against the Patriots several weeks ago. The fact that Miami has a brutal secondary does not help matters and that is exactly why Eli Manning will have a bounce back game after the Giants snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week against their cross-town rivals the New York Jets.

Odell Beckham Jr. is bar none the best wideout in football. Don't talk to me about Julio Jones, Megatron, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins 'cause I ain't hearin you. Beckham makes catches most won't even attempt and he will bring the pain on Monday night to the Miami secondary. Bottom line here is that I can see the Giants making a postseason run. Can anyone but the most ardent Dolphins fan say that about Miami? Stop your internal debate on this game and back Big Blue.

 

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Total - Saints vs. Buccaneers

NFL Picks: Play Over 50½  
Best Odds Offered at GTBets

Here's what the Saints do very well. They have a quarterback who passes all day long in Drew Brees (2nd in the NFL) and a defense that is actually quite offensive. And I mean offensive in only the most uncomplimentary way. The Saints will score points aplenty against the No. 23rd rated scoring defense and Jameis Winston will continue his impressive trajectory as an NFL quarterback when he torches the moribund Saints secondary.

This one is going to be a scoreboard turner so don't miss out. The NFL odds makers are hanging this total at about 50 ½ which is high - just not high enough.

 

The Woodman’s Corner (9-4 ATS)

NFL Picks: Play the Patriots -3 (-120)
Best Odds Offered at YouWager

The Woodman is having one hell of a season and cashed yet another one of his NFL picks last week when his penchant for puppies paid off yet again as he backed the Ravens +4 in their cover last week over the Miami Dolphins. But this week he is reversing course and eschewing his predilection for points as he looks to the dreaded road favorite. Yes, he is backing Tom Terrific and his band of merry Patriots as they lay a field goal in the Lone Star State.

The Woodman sayeth bet the farm if you've got one on the New England Patriots -3.