NFL Picks: Superbowl Value Picks

Joe Catalano

Thursday, January 31, 2013 6:31 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013 6:31 PM UTC

Super Bowl XLVII is just a few days away and the tension is building as two teams of destiny will be meeting  in what should be one of the more competitive Super Bowls in history.

Let’s focus on the MVP Prop and see who we think will take home the trophy along with their Super Bowl Ring.

Odds to Win Super Bowl MVP

Colin Kaepernick – 8/5

Joe Flacco – 11/4

Frank Gore- 7/1

Ray Lewis- 7/1

Ray Rice -12/1

Michael Crabtree- 14/1

Anquan Boldin-16/1

Ed Reed -33/1

In my opinion, this is as far as the list needs to go. These are the players that have any legitimate shot at winning the award. In accordance with tradition, the MVP Trophy goes to the player on the winning team and in this case, I expect the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl.

Look for Ray Lewis to win his 2nd Super Bowl while one of the most underrated players in NFL history, Ed Reed, beats the Superbowl odds and wins a much deserved 1st Super Bowl.

Overestimating Kaepernick

I’ve never seen a player hit the scene as heavily as Colin Kaepernick. His record setting performance against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisionals will go down as possibly the best post season performance in NFL history.

People are forgetting that this is a quarterback that’s only started 10 games in his NFL career and a few brilliant performances doesn’t make him the next Joe Montana or Tom Brady. All I have to do is think about the comeback victory in the NFC Conference Finals in which the 49’ers were an overrated 4 point betting favorite against Atlanta and Atlanta had a 17-0 lead and basically choked under pressure. I remember Kaepernick standing nervously alongside Randy Moss as he thought it was the end of the road for Frisco this season. The 49’ers were lucky to pull out that game.

NFL Picks: Super Bowl Team Prop Picks

NFL Picks: Super Bowl Player Prop Picks

The bottom line is that Colin Kaepernick hasn’t earned the right to be considered dominant and the 49’ers are yet a betting favorite again due to his one huge performance against the Packers. I’m not sold.

“Joe Cool”

Everyone focuses their attention on Ray Lewis and quarterback, Joe Flacco, isn’t getting his just due.

Flacco is a veteran NFL quarterback that has really excelled under pressure. He isn’t about numbers, he’s about confidence. Does it help that he has Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Ray Rice, and Dennis Pitta as weapons? Of course.

We flash back to the Divisional game with Denver against Baltimore. This season was made for Peyton Manning to come into the Super Bowl and pick up his 2nd ring, solidifying his place in NFL history. What Manning and the #1 seeded Broncos didn’t expect was a 70 yard touchdown pass from Flacco to Jacoby Jones and for Baltimore to win in double overtime.

From that moment on, I knew Joe Flacco was as good as he proclaimed and was headed for the Super Bowl. Flacco has a gun for an arm and neither the frigid Denver weather nor Tom Brady and the Patriots could stop Joe Flacco from getting the Promise Land.

Of course, any player can come up with a game winning play, but the quarterback position is most likely associated with that process.

Ray Lewis might get his double digit tackles, but that’s not “MVP Worthy”. Flacco likes to spread the ball around, but when it comes to reliability, he depends on Anquan Boldin. On the Ravens side, the players that I think that can be mentioned with this award are Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, and Ed Reed (for lottery purposes).

Reed has an illustrious career and has come up with huge plays in the past. At that price, throw in a few dollars and include him.

Final Determination

Joe Flacco has demanded respect all year as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has proved it on the field. Look for the Ravens defense to hold Kaepernick in check and Flacco will come up with the big throws when he needs to.

Super Bowl XLVII MVP- Joe Flacco -11/4

Lottery Pick- Ed Reed (33/1)

Not Convinced?

For those of you that insist on jumping on the 49’ers bandwagon, use Frank Gore (7/1) and Michael Crabtree (14/1) as your superbowl picks. No value in Kaepernick.

Be sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Super Bowl Betting Picks on the Spread

NFL Picks: Super Bowl Betting Picks on the Total 

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