Peyton Manning; Total TD Passes
You can get this prop in a variety of different ways, but my favorite Manning TD Prop sandwich is his total TD passes from Bovada. You can wager either the exact number of touchdowns thrown by Manning or a standard one, and I am going with the standard variety.
At 1 ½ touchdowns, the over is priced pretty high, and I’m not sure I want to go down the chalk road for this prop, so I chose to use the price on 2 ½ touchdowns, which is riskier, but potentially more profitable. A bet on the over will net a profit of +105, and I think it’s a good enough value to bet that Manning has three or more TDs against Seattle’s defense.
The Broncos are going to have to throw on the Seahawks because of their stout run defense, and there might be even more throwing in the red zone for the Broncos. It is going to be very difficult for Denver to score on Seattle in the red zone, and the only way might be to spread things out. Running the ball in the red zone is traditionally harder anyways, and going against the best defense in the NFL will make it that much tougher.
My Pick: OVER 2 ½ TDs (+105)
Russell Wilson total rush yards on first attempt
I think this prop may be unique to Bovada, as I haven’t seen it anywhere else as of yet. At 5 ½ yards, I think the under might be the play on the prop of Wilson’s first rush attempt. Wilson has only ran the ball a total of eight times this postseason, and he has netted only 16 yards on those eight attempts. The Niners limited him to three carries for zero yards, and while the Broncos are not quite as good as the Niners at stopping the run, Denver’s run defense has been very good this year and in the playoffs especially.
Good run defenses like the Broncos have held Wilson’s running game in check this season. In his last four games against top 10 rushing defenses (San Francisco twice along with Arizona and St. Louis) Wilson rushed the ball 13 times for 33 yards, and if it wasn’t for a long 27-yard run against the Cardinals, Wilson would have only 12 carries for 6 yards in those four games. Looking at the Hawks’ last four games overall including the playoffs, if you take away that long 27-yard scamper against the Cards, Wilson has 20 yards rushing in his last 14 carries.
Even though there is some chalk with this play at -125, I think under 5 ½ yards is a great wager on Wilson’s first carry. It will likely come early in the game when the Broncos’ defense still has plenty of energy and adrenaline, and I doubt Pete Carroll Gets fancy enough at the beginning of the game to bust out a long run with Wilson on his first carry. My money is on a broken pass play run for two or three yards, giving us the value and the cash.
My Pick: UNDER 5 ½ yards (-125)
Marshawn Lynch O/U 90 ½ rushing yards
Over at Bovada, Lynch’s rushing yards total is only 90 ½, and even though the Broncos’ defense against the run has been very solid this season, I think Beast Mode is going to get his tonight. He will have to run the ball at least 25 times if the Seahawks want a chance to win this game, and as long as he gets the workload of 23-25 carries, he doesn’t even have to average four yards per carry in order to hit the over.
Even though the chalk is huge on the over at -140, I still think Lynch will get plenty of work on order to cash our prop for us. If the Hawks win, he is probably the best MVP bet of any of the Seahawks outside of Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson, but I could make the argument that Lynch is by far the most important Seahawk in this game. Look for Lynch to make it to 91 yards rushing for the game, as long as the Broncos don’t get a three-touchdown lead early in the game.
My Pick: OVER 90 ½ rush yards