NFL Picks: Super Bowl Future Odds Betting

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:59 PM GMT

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to my strange and hopefully highly profitable offseason future odds bet with the NFL Odds.

All of the offseason NFL future odds discussed in this article are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook and all in all we will have spent 27 units total on six teams in the future odds, giving us nine ways of profitability this offseason.

Before you begin, please reference back to my NFC and AFC future odds betting picks, as over half of the 27 total units are tied up in the six teams to advance to the Super Bowl. However once you are done, this article will help tie in the final 13 units on the Super Bowl future odds, which are much more lucrative. 

This bet in complex, but hopefully by the time I’m done you’ll get the idea. I have anywhere from 1-4 units per bet diversified into a total of 12 different wagers on the NFL future odds. If two of these six teams meet for the Super Bowl all the way in February, no matter the combination of the six, we are guaranteed a profit. 

Some combinations are more profitable than others, but all in all, here is my first future odds bet of the offseason on the Super Bowl champion.

The Sharp Pick (13 unit bet)

San Francisco 49ers +600 (3 units to win 18)

Denver Broncos +650 (3 units to win 19.5)

New England Patriots +700 (2.5 units to win 17.5)

Green Bay Packers +1200 (2.5 units to win 30)

Houston Texans +1200 (1 unit to win 12)

Atlanta Falcons +1400 (1 unit to win 14) 

With those six bets for a total of 13 units and the other six bets totaling 14 units in the conference future odds, that puts our total future odds investment at 27 units spread throughout 12 different bets. Now here comes the fun part.

There are a bunch of different scenarios (9 total) that could net us up to a full 100% or more return on our initial 27-unit investment all the way down to a small but nice 20% return. That is of course if 2 of the 6 teams make it to the Super Bowl. If the Super Bowl is the Ravens against the Saints we are screwed, but if you go by the combined implied probability of those six teams above being in the Super Bowl according to their future odds, we have just over a 62% chance of seeing one of those teams in the Super Bowl.

As I said, the fun is coming, and it is right below. Below you can see the potential profits for the entire series of bets, NFC, AFC and Super Bowl if two of these six teams meet in the big game.

The Sharp Pick: Super Bowl future bet payouts (27 units total) 

49ers vs. Broncos (+27 units if 49ers win, +28.5 units if Broncos win)

49ers vs. Patriots (+24 units if 49ers win, +23 units if Patriots win)

49ers vs. Texans (+23 units if 49ers win, +15 units if Texans win)

 

Packers vs. Broncos (+27.5 units if Packers win, +17.5 units if Broncos win)

Packers vs. Patriots (+24.5 units if Packers win, +12 units if Patriots win)

Packers vs. Texans (+23.5 units if Packers win, +4 units if Texans win)

 

Falcons vs. Broncos (+11.5 units if Falcons win, +19 units if Broncos win)

Falcons vs. Patriots (+8.5 units if Falcons win, +13.5 units if Patriots win)

Falcons vs. Texans (+7.5 units if Falcons win, +5.5 units if Texans win)

Obviously we have half of our investment tied up in two teams the Broncos and 49ers, but of course those are the favorites and those net us the most return because of the value of their future odds.

Because of how well they are priced at Bet365, a Packers vs. Broncos Super Bowl would be awesome, as would a battle between the 49ers and the Patriots. Even a Falcons vs. Broncos Super Bowl would net a nice return. But all in all, if you tail me on this one this offseason, we will definitely be routing for a combination of the 49ers or Packers facing the Broncos or Patriots, as those present the highest profit margins for our futures NFL picks.