NFL Picks: Super Bowl Favorites or Sportsbook Traps?

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, September 11, 2013 11:29 AM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2013 11:29 AM GMT

I have already laid out my favorite picks to win the Super Bowl, but a lot has changed in those few months, and now it’s time for me to play devil’s advocate to myself.


Super Bowl favorites’ concerns

 
The NFL Odds have been shifting because of all the offseason news in the NFL, and with a month before training camp opens, let’s take a look at some of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and why they might not be such a good bet this season. All of the NFL Odds listed in this article are Super Bowl future odds from Bet365. 

New England Patriots (+800)

There are a lot of things to be said about the Patriots, but since the last time I listed the Pats as one of my Super Bowl favorites, one of their tight ends has gone under the knife, and the other has been arrested and charged with 1st degree murder. Tom Brady’s offensive targets are dropping like flies. Now we could all be looking at the Aaron Hernandez arrest as a huge blow to this team, but it doesn’t have to be. However with all the uncertainty in the receiving department, the Pats aren’t looking like a great wager like they did a few months ago.

San Francisco 49ers (+650)

Everything looked like the Niners were going to at the very least get back to the NFC Title game, but after the loss of Michael Crabtree, I am beginning to doubt the Niners in a tough NFC. Without Crabtree, teams who score early and can hold a lead will give the Niners some trouble. San Francisco is not built to play catch-up; they are built to play with a lead. Unless they sign a veteran (Randy Moss) or two to take his spot in the X position, I fear for the Niners' passing game. Sure Vernon Davis is still good, but I have doubts that Aquan Boldin can hold down the X receiver slot. He isn’t going to run past anyone at this stage of his career. Colin Kaepernick has some game film on him by now, and his days of 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing in a game are probably over. The Niners will have to find more ways to win this season.

Seattle Seahawks (+850)

There are many things I have said about the Hawks this offseason, and in regards to their chances to win the Super Bowl, I think they are wildly overrated. Russell Wilson will likely struggle some in his second season, as most 2nd year quarterbacks do. However I don’t think that is the main reason they will regress this season. The main reason is their schedule from top to bottom is very rough. They play five of their first eight games on the road, and they have to play their non-divisional games against the AFC and NFC South. There are very few easy games on their schedule, and if they stumble out of the gate, I could legitimately see the Hawks going 9-7 SU and missing the playoffs if the NFC shapes up like it did in 2012.

Denver Broncos (+650)

Out of all four of these teams, the Broncos have the least amount of concerns. However they aren’t without concern. The loss of Elvis Dumervil hurts their pass rush, (and our NFL picks for that matter)even though they signed Shaun Phillips, and of course their young running game is a large variable. Other than the age of their secondary and that of Manning himself though, it’s hard to find things wrong with Denver this season. However anything can happen before and during the season when you make a future odds bet, so any team in the NFL is a rough bet to begin with. 

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