NFL Picks: Super Bowl Betting Picks on Spread

Jason Lake

Monday, January 28, 2013 7:48 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 28, 2013 7:48 PM UTC

The sharps have driven down the NFL odds for Sunday’s Super Bowl clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. Are the Ravens still worth consideration as somewhat smaller underdogs? Find out who we are backing with our NFL picks.

Jason’s record on his final weekly NFL picks for the 2012 postseason (including Pro Bowl):

6-5 ATS (+1.31 units)

8-3 Totals (+4.81 units)

Profit: +6.11 units

Thank you, Russell Wilson. Your well-deserved inclusion in the 2013 Pro Bowl helped the NFC (+1.5) blow out the AFC 62-35. Although I’m not sure about the legality of Jeff Saturday lining up for both teams. No matter – we got paid, as yet another one of our NFL picks cashed in.

Just one piece of business left to take care of. We’ve got a heartwarming NFL family special this week, with head coach John Harbaugh’s Ravens taking on head coach Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers. I don’t have an older brother, but I’m pretty sure older brothers are always supposed to win in these episodes. That would be John in this case, by 15 months. Pick the Ravens~!

The Ravens and the Damage Done

A lot of people already have. Our NFL betting consensus reports as we go to press show the Ravens drawing 57 percent support, and that’s after the NFL odds had already moved from Baltimore –5 to Baltimore –3.5. Seems like generic early sharp action to me. And check out our expanded consensus report: The Ravens are also pulling in 57 percent of the cash. Harmonious.

Ah, but look a little more closely. Big Money is on the side of the 49ers. Our survey shows 15 bets of $1000 or higher coming in on San Francisco, compared to six large bets for Baltimore. That makes the average bet size for both teams nearly equal: $1,102 for the Ravens to $1,092 for the Niners. That’s less than one percent difference for all you math majors out there.

Weekend (Come Alive)

Whichever side you might be on, the books are expecting a gold rush on the 49ers once the weekend rolls around. San Francisco was one of the Top 10 public teams in the NFL this year, getting off to a very good 5-3 ATS start under QB Alex Smith and staying profitable at 6-4 ATS after Colin Kaepernick took over.

If you’re thinking the public will indeed open up its collective man-purse on the Niners as kick-off approaches, then you’ll either want to grab them now while they’re still at –3.5, or grab Baltimore Sunday afternoon at something closer to the +5 we saw at the open. In the meantime, for the purposes of this article, I’ll stick with the Ravens as my recommended pick even at +3.5. That’s not a seismic shift from +5; the fair price for moving that far would only be about 15 cents. Talk to me again if they drop to +3.

What are our thoughst and predictions for the Super Bowl Odds & Line Movement?


Thank You for Shopping

Actually, this is it for Yours Truly – unless we meet again for the 2013 NFL season. I’ve had a very good time providing you with my free sports picks, and I’m especially happy to see I’ve collected so many trolls along the way. Which reminds me:

Jason’s record on his final weekly NFL picks for the 2012 regular season and postseason (up to Super Bowl XLVII):

57-43-3 ATS (–1.65 units vig)

10-6 ML (+5.82 units)

26-20-1 Totals (–1.90 units vig)

Profit: 22.26 units

Once again, thank you for allowing me onto your computer screens. It’s truly been a privilege. Enjoy the game, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

My Free NFL Pick: Take the Ravens +3.5 (–101)

Now go check out my final NFL pick on the Super Bowl total

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