Sunday, February 3, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Free NFL Pick: Over
Best Line Offered: YouWager
It was just two years ago when the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl closed with the highest total ever at 57 points. Super Bowl LIII is poised to break that record if the number holds up.
The first Super Bowl, which was not called that (It was AFL-NFL World Championship Game), did not have a betting total. Every one since has, and the “over” is 26-24-1.
Here’s a look at the 10 highest Super Bowl totals:
Why And How Patriots Score At Least 30 Points
Tom Brady has New England’s offense humming. In their last three contests against the Jets, Chargers, and Chiefs — the latter two who were supposed to knock the Patriots out of the playoffs — they are averaging 38.6 PPG.
What changed for the Patriots? Old-school football. Bill Belichick has taken a page out of yesteryear, 1960-70s football and done so with a modern twist. Since losing to Pittsburgh when they ran the ball only 19 times for 96 yards, New England shifted gears. In four straight wins and covers, the Pats are feeding the beast, averaging nearly 40 rush attempts for 183.7 yards a game. Belichick has gone with some formations and blocking schemes his father used to use when he was a young coach.
The ability to utilize James White, Sony Michel and even fullback Rex Burkhead in the run game has opened up the passing game, especially in the middle of the field for Brady.
Almost assuredly, that will be the plan for Super Bowl, looking to force the Rams’ linebackers down in to stop the running game and throw right behind them, against a so-so Los Angeles secondary. Also, Brady will use White in the flat or in option routes opposite the tight end side to gain yards.
With the Patriots’ offense rolling, they should break the 30-point barrier again.
Why And How Rams Score At Least 30 Points
The Rams also had their moment of epiphany, after losing back-to-back games to Chicago and Philadelphia. Sean McVay realized the passing game was just not the same without Copper Kupp, and while Robert Woods was pretty good in the slot, it diminished his usefulness as a deep receiver.
Enter running back C.J. Anderson from the scrap heap to go along with Todd Gurley and a discussion with the offensive line. The Rams might have been a big-play offense that chucked the ball down the field with QB Jared Goff, but they needed more balance and had invested in the offensive line and Gurley.
Though the Rams never got the running game untracked against New Orleans (77 yards), they did not give up on it, with 26 attempts. L.A. will arrive in Atlanta on a 4-0 SU and ATS spin, also averaging almost 40 carries (39.25) for 193.5 YPG.
Gurley said he gave a “sorry performance” in the NFC Championship, so look for him to be a force in the Super Bowl, both running and receiving.
Do not be surprised if Belichick’s defense has a few tricks early, but like Kansas City, once the Goff and the Rams’ offense find their groove, they will score more than 30 points on an above-average but not elite New England defense.