NFL Picks: Super Bowl 50 Matchup Odds & Predictions

Kevin Stott

Thursday, July 30, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 30, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

One offshore sportsbook has Super Bowl 50 matchups which may be worth your while. Let’s examine and make some NFL picks based on some realistic scenarios.

In some professional sports like the NFL and European Soccer, it’s very obvious that only a few and select number of teams will actually have a chance to win their respective league’s championship. Teams like the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are almost always atop the standings in the leagues and often annual participants, and often winners in the Super Bowl and the prestigious UEFA Champions League soccer tournament. So is there any creative way to potentially wager on these teams while increasing the NFL odds some while also making it a little entertaining? 

 

Trying to Bet Something Fun and Creative in the Super Bowl 50 Future Book Markets
This year’s Super Bowl will theoretically be known as the Golden Super Bowl because it will be the 50th Super Bowl played in the NFL’s modern Championship Game era since the AFL and NFL merged, and 50th anniversaries have traditionally been recognized as golden anniversaries, and, also because California, the site of the game, is known as “The Golden State” because of the Gold Rush in the mid-1880s. And instead of going with the traditional Roman Numerals like last year’s Super Bowl XLIX and having a weird-looking and weird-sounding “Super Bowl L,” this game has just been dubbed Super Bowl 50. And few will actually call it the Golden Super Bowl, save for the occasional mention by an announcer explaining it all and a 43-year-old housewife in Tulsa on Super Bowl Sunday preparing the last stages of her famous 17-layer bean dip. Anyway, the Big Game is being played on Sunday, February 7, 2016 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, the brand-spanking new home of the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers and will be televised on CBS. So instead of just looking at the updated Futures Book odds for the winner of the game, let’s go one better, casually providing updated Super Bowl odds through the text here while focusing on a more niche, more entertaining and potentially more profitable Futures Book marketplace—the Super Bowl 50 Matchups offered by the offshore sportsbook 5Dimes.

And with all of the usual suspects who are expected to contend for the Vince Lombardi Trophy most likely being the ones who will meet in Santa Clara in February, savvy sports bettors may be able to find that winning Super Bowl combination and have a much better payout than if he or she were to simply bet the game’s winner.

It seems that the 2014/15 NFL season will look a lot like the 2015/16 NFL season, with the premier Quarterbacks, Head Coaches and Defenses again most likely to end up meeting for the NFL Championship. In the the NFC, that means Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks (+465 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (+565), while in the AFC the Elite is probably now made up of three teams: the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (+1000) and the likely suspended (4 games) at-some-point Tom Brady; Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (+1500); and, the newest member of the NFL’s Elite—possibly replacing the Broncos with Manning near retirement—the Indianapolis Colts (+950) and Andrew Luck. Any combination of those five teams (AFC + NFC) seems like a logical pick to make this year’s Super Bowl and should make Regular Season viewing that much better. So let’s look at the fresh odds for all of the possible Super Bowl Matchups up to the +25,000 (250/1) price payout range and then offer some ideas for a good Futures Bet considered a Short-shot (from the list of the 5 NFL Elite Teams) and then couple which would be considered legitimate Longshots should both teams make the Super Bowl.

 

Super Bowl 50 Matchups Odds (to +5000)
New England Patriots—Green Bay Packers +1800

New England Patriots—Seattle Seahawks +1840

Indianapolis Colts—Seattle Seahawks +1960

Indianapolis Colts—Green Bay Packers +2235

Denver Broncos—Seattle Seahawks +2390

Denver Broncos—Green Bay Packers +2725

Baltimore Ravens—Seattle Seahawks +4350

Baltimore Ravens—Green Bay Packers +4500

Pittsburgh Steelers—Seattle Seahawks +4500

Pittsburgh Steelers—Green Bay Packers +4575

New England Patriots—Dallas Cowboys +4950

Indianapolis Colts—Dallas Cowboys +5000

 

Super Bowl 50 Matchups Odds (to +10,000)
Miami Dolphins—Seattle Seahawks +5400

Houston Texans—Minnesota Vikings +6100

Miami Dolphins—Green Bay Packers +6150

Denver Broncos—Dallas Cowboys +6350

Cincinnati Bengals—Seattle Seahawks +6450

New England Patriots—Philadelphia Eagles +6450

San Diego Chargers—Seattle Seahawks +6450

Indianapolis Colts—Philadelphia Eagles +6500

Cincinnati Bengals—Green Bay Packers +7350

San Diego Chargers—Green Bay Packers +7350

New England Patriots—Arizona Cardinals +7450

Kansas City Chiefs—Seattle Seahawks +7700

Denver Broncos—Philadelphia Eagles +7900

Indianapolis Colts—Arizona Cardinals +7900

Buffalo Bills—Seattle Seahawks +8500

Houston Texans—Seattle Seahawks +8500

Kansas City Chiefs—Green Bay Packers +8800

New England Patriots—Detroit Lions +8800

Indianapolis Colts—Detroit Lions +9400

Buffalo Bills—Green Bay Packers +9600

Denver Broncos—Arizona Cardinals +9600

Houston Texans—Green Bay Packers +9600

New England Patriots—Carolina Panthers +9900

New England Patriots—New Orleans Saints +9900

 

Super Bowl 50 Matchups and Odds (to +15,000)
Baltimore Ravens—Dallas Cowboys +10,000

Pittsburgh Steelers—Dallas Cowboys +10,000

Indianapolis Colts—Carolina Panthers +10,500

Indianapolis Colts—New Orleans +10,500

New York Jets—Seattle Seahawks +10,700

New England Patriots—New York Giants +11,200

Denver Broncos—Detroit Lions +11,400

Indianapolis Colts—Atlanta Falcons +11,800

Indianapolis Colts—New York Jets +12,100

New York Jets—Green Bay Packers +12,100

Denver Broncos—Carolina Panthers +12,700

Denver Broncos—New Orleans Saints +12,700

New England Patriots—Minnesota Vikings +13,600

New England Patriots—St. Louis Rams +13,600

Denver Broncos—Atlanta Falcons +14,000

Baltimore Ravens—Philadelphia Eagles +14,200

Miami Dolphins—Dallas Cowboys +14,200

Denver Broncos—New York Giants +14,300

Indianapolis Colts—Minnesota Vikings +14,500

Indianapolis Colts—St. Louis Rams +14,500

Pittsburgh Steelers—Philadelphia Eagles +14,900

 

Super Bowl 50 Matchups and Odds (to +25,000)
New England Patriots—San Francisco 49ers +15,300

Cincinnati Bengals—Dallas Cowboys +16,000

Indianapolis Colts—San Francisco 49ers +16,200

Baltimore Ravens—Arizona Cardinals +16,500

San Diego Chargers—Dallas Cowboys +17,000

Denver Broncos—Minnesota Vikings +17,500

Denver Broncos—St. Louis Rams +17,500

Miami Dolphins—Philadelphia Eagles +17,600

Pittsburgh Steelers—Arizona Cardinals +18,100

Denver Broncos—San Francisco 49ers +19,600

Baltimore Ravens—Detroit Lions +20,500

Kansas City Chiefs—Dallas Cowboys +20,500

Cincinnati Bengals—Philadelphia Eagles +21,000

Miami Dolphins—Arizona Cardinals +21,000

New England Patriots—Chicago Bears +21,000

San Diego Chargers—Philadelphia Eagles +21,000

Pittsburgh Steelers—Detroit Lions +21,500

Indianapolis Colts—Chicago Bears +22,000

Buffalo Bills—Dallas Cowboys +22,500

Houston Texans—Dallas Cowboys +22,500

Baltimore Ravens—Carolina Panthers +23,000

Baltimore Ravens—New Orleans Saints +23,000

Pittsburgh Steelers—Carolina Panthers +24,000

Pittsburgh Steelers—New Orleans Saints +24,000

Baltimore Ravens—Atlanta Falcons +25,000

Kansas City Chiefs—Philadelphia Eagles +25,000

> Odds from July 29

 

Super Bowl 50 Prediction From a Distance: Look For Chips On Shoulders
If you look at who made it to and won the Super Bowl over the past several years, you can see a pattern of the same teams and QBs getting there, making it seem like the only way to get there—the Super Bowl—is to have a Brady or a Wilson or a Manning or a Rodgers at QB and a Defense that can carry you there. Right now, the NFC are -2½-point favorites (Bovada) to win the Super Bowl, and that’s probably a byproduct of having 2 of the best 3 teams in the NFL in its conference (Seattle and Green Bay), and the AFC’s representative, the defending champion Patriots, still going through all the turmoil and legal realities of the Deflategate mess. And with the Seahawks and Packers justifiable representatives from the NFC, then paring the AFC down to two viable Super Bowl candidates is next, and with Denver aging and Indianapolis having acquired so much talent in this Offseason (Free Agent RB Frank Gore from the 49ers, Free Agent WR Andre Johnson from the Texans and WR Phillip Dorsett from Miami of Florida in the NFL Draft), eliminating Denver and visualizing the AFC as a two-team race between the Patriots (+215 to get to AFC Championship game, 5Dimes) and Colts (+180 to get to AFC Championship game, 5Dimes) seems prudent. So, pick who you think will make it from each conference from those 4 teams, make the bet now, and you may have find pretty good odds. and remember that the Colts play host to the Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (Oct. 18) in Week 6 (Colts -3, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, NFL Games of the Year), a game which could have massive significance as to who eventually gets Homefield Advantage in the AFC Playoffs and a game in which the billion point mark could possible be topped. Excuse me, my Journalistic License went astray there. I meant to write “ a million.” My bad.

And riding the idea of “Who’s Mad”? this coming season, it seems the three best teams in the NFL all have a reason to be Mad and should be motivated by this emotional reality going on inside the helmets. For the Patriots, it will all about being Mad about this Deflategate thing and the perceived injustice done to them by NFL and mean Uncle Roger. And letting it draw out in the courts instead of just paying the piper and having Brady serve the 4-game suspension seems like it could hurt New England’s chances of establishing any Flow this Regular Season. Practicing down and outs is much more important this time of year than getting your evidence together about air pressure in a football, cuz. So maybe that opens up a lane for the Colts to get to the Super Bowl? But they are still young and raw and their Defense is suspect, which then theoretically opens up the door for the aforementioned Denver Broncos and Father Time, the Baltimore Ravens (+2300), Pittsburgh Steelers (+2750), Miami Dolphins (+3000), Cincinnati Bengals (+3500) and Buffalo Bills (+5500). And that’s why it’s sports gambling and why the speculative nature of Future Markets—especially the really niche and fun ones like this—is so interesting and so important to do at this theoretically dead time of the year (for American football) if you’re seeking value and would like to try to turn a little bit of money.

Over in the NFC, the two “mad” teams are the Seahawks and Packers, two teams expected to meet again in the NFC Championship Game this year. Green Bay is Mad because it folded in the 4th Quarter in Seattle against the Seahawks in last year’s NFC Championship Game, while the defending NFC (-130 Moneyline to win Super Bowl 50, Bovada) champion Seahawks are Mad because they decided to pass from a micrometer out instead of running and pretty much handed a Super Bowl title to the Patriots in Glendale, Arizona last season. Ugly is what is was, and the only way to erase memories of such sheer ugliness is by getting to the damn Super Bowl and winning it this damn time, brother. Anger fuels much in sport, and is seldom talked about in handicapping. And if the Seahawks and Packers don’t make it to the NFL Championship Game in Santa Clara, who are good bets? The Dallas Cowboys (+1550), Philadelphia Eagles (+2400), Arizona Cardinals (+3000), Detroit Lions (+3800), Carolina Panthers (+4300) and New Orleans Saints (+4300) are the oddsmakers’ favorites in the NFC and it seems the Eagles and Panthers worth consideration for me with the Cowboys possibly slipping some with the departure of RB DeMarco Murray to those Eagles, the Lions falling off in the wake of DL Ndamukong Suh (Dolphins) and Nick Fairley (Rams) signing big, Free Agent contracts elsewhere and the Saints seeing team and fan favorite Jimmy Graham (TE) be traded to the Seahawks. If either, or both of Philadelphia and Carolina can get good and steady play from the QB position and win most of the TO and Field Position battles over the course of the 16-game Regular Season, then maybe one of them or even the longer-shot Minnesota Vikings (+6000) and RB Adrian Peterson can make it to the NFC Championship Game in January where they’ll no doubt then have to upset either the Seahawks or Packers for the bet to win should a bettor combine the Eagles, Panthers or the Vikings with whomever they see coming out of the AFC.

Odds are, at least one of the Elite 5 (Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, Colts, Broncos) will be playing in this year’s Super Bowl in the Bay Area, so any Futures Bets made in this marketplace made without those teams have to be Long- or even Mid-shots. But that’s what makes it interesting and unique, and the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually met in a Super Bowl not so long ago that neither was supposed to really be in. Things happen.

Tomorrow in this leathery corner of Cyberspace, we’ll have a theoretical playing out of the 2015/16 NFL Playoffs, with obviously, as you can see below, with the defending champ Patriots facing the Packers (New England Patriots-Green Bay Packers +1800; was +2575 a week ago, 5Dimes) in Super Bowl 50 and winning it because of the quiet, workmanlike performance and a 4th Quarter, game-winning TD rush from 1 yard out from dependable FB John Kuhn. Every dog has his day and with Rodgers motivated, WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson ready to put up dual 1,000+ receiving yard seasons and RB Eddie Lacy pounding the ball, if Green Bay can play enough quality Defense, and improve enough on that side of the ball, then maybe we see the Cheeseheads bringing another precious Lombardi Trophy home to Brown County, Wisconsin and to a place former Packers Head Coach and NFL legend Vince Lombardi himself would absolutely love to see it sit for a year.

Super Bowl 50 Prediction: Green Bay Packers 33 New England Patriots 24

Short Shot Super Bowl 50 Matchup Pick: New England Patriots-Green Bay Packers +1800 (5Dimes)

Mid Shot Super Bowl 50 Picks: Buffalo Bills—Seattle Seahawks +8500, Houston Texans—Green Bay Packers +9600, New England Patriots—Carolina Panthers +9900 (5Dimes)

Long Shot Super Bowl 50 Matchup Picks: New England Patriots—Minnesota Vikings +13,600, Baltimore Ravens—Carolina Panthers +23,000 (5Dimes)

AFC Championship Game Props Pick: New England Patriots +215 to Reach AFC Championship Game (5Dimes)

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