NFL Picks: Super Bowl 50 Futures Odds Update

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 6, 2015 4:49 PM GMT

Their performance in the NFL Preseason has driven odds on the Philadelphia Eagles from 20/1 all the way down to 8/1 to win Super Bowl 50.

Wiseguys and casual sports gambler glommed up Futures Book tickets on Chip Kelly’s new-look team which has plugged new acquisitions Sam Bradford at QB and DeMarco Murray at RB. And, as we near Thursday night’s kick off for Week 1, let’s take an updated look at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Super Bowl Futures odds after the Deflategate fiasco is finally over and a week before the new NFL Regular Season begins and see if there is a choice NFL pick to be made which might be able to create a nice hedging opportunity come next February.

 

Introduction
To everything—turn, turn, turn, there is a season—turn, turn, turn. Before Super Bowl XLIX was even played earlier in February of this calendar year, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City posted early Super Bowl 50 odds for this hungry and savvy enough to bite at those earliest possible Future Book numbers to win an NFL championship. With the new NFL Regular Season now less than a week away, let’s compare those odds from January to the most recent ones up heading into this Labor Day weekend.

Super Bowl 50 will be played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California—the home of the San Francisco 49ers—on Sunday, February 7, 2016, and will be televised on CBS with Jim Nantz doing the play-by-play, Phil Simms as a color analyst with Tracy Wolfson on the sidelines. Here are the updated odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win Super Bowl 50, nicknamed the Golden Super Bowl as it will be held in the Golden State (California)—named after the historic Gold Rush—and because 50th anniversaries are traditionally known as the “Golden Anniversary.”

 

Updated Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Futures Book Odds—September 3, 2015
Seattle Seahawks 9/2 (5/1, odds pre-Super Bowl XLIX, January 2015)

Green Bay Packers 6/1 (7/1)

Indianapolis Colts 7/1 (16/1)

Denver Broncos 8/1 (8/1)

New England Patriots 8/1 (6/1 to 10/1 during Deflategate limbo)

Philadelphia Eagles 8/1 (16/1; dropped to 20/1 before August rise)

Dallas Cowboys 14/1 (12/1)

Baltimore Ravens 16/1 (25/1 to 20/1 to current)

Miami Dolphins 20/1 (30/1)

Pittsburgh Steelers 20/1 (25/1)

Arizona Cardinals 30/1 (25/1)

Detroit Lions 30/1 (25/1)

Kansas City Chiefs 30/1 (30/1)

Atlanta Falcons 40/1 (30/1)

Buffalo Bills 40/1 (50/1)

Cincinnati Bengals 40/1 (25/1)

Houston Texans 40/1 (30/1)

Minnesota Vikings 40/1 (50/1)

New Orleans Saints 40/1 (25/1)

San Diego Chargers 40/1 (30/1) 

New York Giants 50/1 (30/1)

St. Louis Rams 50/1 (25/1)

Carolina Panthers 60/1 (30/1)

New York Jets 80/1 (100/1)

Chicago Bears 100/1 (50/1)

Cleveland Browns 100/1 (50/1)

Oakland Raiders 100/1 (300/1)

San Francisco 49ers 100/1 (25/1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1 (200/1)

Washington Redskins 100/1 (100/1)

Jacksonville Jaguars 200/1 (300/1)

Tennessee Titans 200/1 (300/1)

 

Conclusions
As you can see, NFL Futures Book bettors here at the SuperBook—as well as in other sports books in Nevada, online and offshore—have been really bearish lately on the Eagles who went 3-1 in the Preseason, outscoring opponents 133-77. At 8/1 odds, it would now seem Philadelphia has suddenly thrust themselves into the ranks of the NFL’s elite. But no so fast—these are just gamblers perceiving value and the way Philadelphia scored in its Exhibition games made some think this team can possibly score its way into a championship, although the Eagles defense also has looked pretty decent. But beating one or both of the Super Bowl odds favorite Seattle Seahawks (9/2 to win Super Bowl) and/or the Green Bay Packers (7/1) in the NFC will still be quite difficult. Besides the big movement on Philadelphia, there was also some money on the Patriots, driving the NFL odds back from 10/1 to 8/1 after the news New England QB Tom Brady would not be suspended 4 games at all for his alleged part in the Deflategate situation. The odds in the Patriots Week 1 game and 2015/16 NFL Regular Season opener on Thursday—which last closed at (New England) -3 before Judge Berman made his decision in New York City on Thursday—rose to Patriots -7 at the SuperBook while New England’s Regular Season team Win Total was adjusted up ½ game from 10 Over -130 to 10½ Under +110. The renowned Las Vegas sportsbook also moved its odds on New England to win the AFC East from 2/3 to 1/2 and adjusted the AFC odds on the Patriots from 9/2 to 3/1.

So, the idea here would be to grab the New England Patriots at 8/1 (+800) now—it had risen up to 10/1 in many places during the Deflategate void —as if Brady and the defending Super Bowl do make it to the NFL Championship game again, then the New England Futures Book bettor will obviously have the potential of making a nice counter bet on the NFC representative on the Moneyline, possibly as an Underdog although the NFC is currently the favorite in the game in Futures Books (NFC -2½, Bovada; Moneyline: NFC -130). The Patriots to win the AFC at 3/1 also seems to be dripping in pure logical value as it still seems this conference will be a three-team race between Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and the defending champions New England and Brady. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and PaddyPower and some other offshore and European sportsbooks are also currently hanging an 8/1 on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

As you can see, besides the aforementioned Eagles and Patriots, Super Bowl 50 Futures bettors have also bet the Seahawks, Packers, Colts, Ravens, Dolphins, Steelers, Bills, Vikings and Jets all down and there has even been love at the betting windows for some big underdogs like the Raiders (300/1 to 100/1), Buccaneers (200/1 to 100/1) and even the AFC South’s Dynamics Duds, the Jacksonville Jaguars (300/1 to 200/1) and Tennessee Titans (300/1 to 200/1), although if either of those last two teams wins the Super Bowl we best go on a bean buying binge and man the Bomb Shelters. Teams Super Bowl Futures have been bearish on include the Cowboys, Cardinals, Lions, Falcons, Bengals, Texans, Saints, Chargers, Giants, Rams, Panthers, Bears, Browns and 49ers. Only the Denver Broncos (12/1), Kansas City Chiefs (30/1) and Washington Redskins (100/1) have exactly the same odds they did when these lines opened up in January.

NFL Super Bowl Futures Book Chalk Pick: New England Patriots 8/1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL Super Bowl Futures Book Longshot Pick: Minnesota Vikings 40/1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)