Our NFL handicapper shares his unique approach to Super Bowl futures as we approach the beginning of the 2015-16 NFL season. Sharing his best and worst bets for footballs biggest game.
Super Bowl 50, gold midfield numbers and such, should be a good time. If I was to listen to the girl at the hotel bar tonight, the Philadelphia Eagles would be a lock for the Lombardi Trophy, and basically these few hundred words will be wasted. Odds are they probably are wasted, as was she. But as anyone with German-Irish descent might tell you, as she did, maybe you shouldn’t make a meal solely out of distilled potatoes.
There is a certain fallacy about betting heavy favorites for a Super Bowl title, as one of my fellow SBR writers so eloquently pointed out. Basically it is far better to wait if one of them makes the playoffs, and then bet on that team to win each of their playoff games on the money line. There is a good chance that the team will eventually be a slight dog, which will juice up your payday as you press your bets throughout the playoff run. But that’s not much fun now is it?
So, if that was off of the table you would be well served to consider one of the other Super Bowl futures bets on the table right now. Right now, that is the NFC favored at -2.5 and the O/U total listed at 51.5 points. In this scenario, I would consider your true favorites for getting to the Super Bowl and which conference is the deepest. This year I believe that is actually the AFC, as the NFC has a few clear-cut favorites in the top 6 of Super Bowl futures odds. That leaves five or six AFC teams that could realistically make an appearance in the big game. But what does that really mean? A dominant team, likely from the NFC, will meet a battle tested AFC team that will probably have a lesser record and wins of a lower margin of victory. So it makes sense that the NFC team would be favored slightly in this scenario – but you’ll probably want to take those points and the AFC team at the end of the day.
With the O/U total, one has history on their side if they were to take the under of 51.5 points. At a total of 51.5, the under would be 7-3 in the last ten Super Bowls. Add that to the fact that you have some favorites with really great defenses this year in Denver, Seattle, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Also, those favorites aren’t exactly the offensive juggernauts we’ve seen in the past. Green Bay comes to mind with their loss of Jordy Nelson as well as Miami, New England, and Denver maybe taking a step back on offense. 51.5 is a pretty high number which has been hard to exceed in the past so taking the under would be prudent – at the end of the day.
But if you want the absolute lock for your Super Bowl future bet to win the whole thing, it’s your home team. If you’re drunk in the hotel lobby, hell yes the Philadelphia Eagles are worth your NFL pick at 20 to 1 at Bovada in September! You all will rue the day those Eagles win that trophy. Baltimore at 35 to 1 at GTBets (wait, that’s actually pretty good value and they are ruining my theme here) let’s do it! For me growing up in a family of Seahawks fans, of course I want to say that I had faith in them at +650 in the NFL odds market at the beginning of the season. My loyalty is worth even more than that! So good luck, you homer, we all knew they would win the big game - you just put money on it.