NFL Picks: Super Bowl 50 Betting Odds & Recent Value Trends

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 11, 2016 7:59 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 11, 2016 7:59 PM UTC

Early betting value cashed last weekend, here’s a look at the updated NFL Odds for Super Bowl 50, and some trends that could help your NFL Picks form here on out. Dont miss it!

Super Bowl Trends
The biggest trend that stands out in Super Bowl betting over the last few years has been underdogs. The dogs have now won four Super Bowls in a row, and while the NFL Odds from last season’s Super Bowl were basically even, more sportsbooks were favoring the Seahawks last season at NFL Odds of -1. However, we all know how that ended, so while it looked as if the favorites were going to win the game last season, the incredible interception from Malcolm Butler sealed the deal for the +1 underdog Patriots.

Underdogs have also been a really good wager over the last 15 years or so. In the last 14 Super Bowls, underdogs are 11-3 ATS, and they have won the Super Bowl SU in six of the last eight seasons. Another big trend heading into Super Bowl 50 is the NFC, who have been very good at covering in the Super Bowl. A lot of it has to do with the Giants cashing as big underdogs those two years against the Patriots, but even after the Seahawks choked away last year’s Super Bowl, the NFC is still 6-2 ATS in the last eight games.


Arizona Cardinals (+425)
The Cardinals are still the favorite to take home the Super Bowl at Bovada, however, the problem is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are coming to town, and if they truly fixed their offensive woes after their beat down of the Redskins, the Cardinals might be a tough bet. Sure, the Cardinals’ defense is head and shoulders better than the Redskins’, but Rodgers and the Packers have done this before. They were the 6th seed in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl, so that being said, I would lay off the Cardinals for now.


New England Patriots (+450)
After a week off for Tom Brady and the boys, the Patriots will welcome in the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL Odds for the game favor the Patriots by five points, with a total of only 43 points, and if we get another defensive performance from the Chiefs like last week, the Pats could be in trouble. However, to compare the Texans offense with the Patriots is kind of like comparing a high school quarterback to a four-year college starter. While the Chiefs are one of the better stories in the NFL this season after starting the year 1-5 and losing their top running back, they might be without Jeremy Maclin after he sprained his ankle last week, so while the road teams dominated in the Wildcard round, it could be the opposite this week.


Carolina Panthers (+500)
It seems as if everyone has been trying to find ways to doubt the Panthers all season, and Bovada is no different pricing them behind the Patriots and Cardinals. In my opinion, the Panthers should be shorter than 5/1, but that just means there is potential value on the Panthers. Carolina is a -3 favorite this week against the two-time NFC champion Seahawks in the NFL Odds, and while the Panthers should in fact be favorites, the public might jump on the Seahawks just because of their track record in the playoffs over the last few years. However, with the potential of Marshawn Lynch holding himself out of the game this week again, I see the Panthers as winners this week and potentially beyond that.


Seattle Seahawks (+550)
Speaking of the Seahawks, the defending NFC champs are right behind the Panthers in the NFL Odds to win the Super Bowl, and while they are priced rather appropriately, they still have a cross-country road trip into Carolina this week, and if they win that one they will have to face either the Packers or Cardinals, which would be another really tough road matchup. I have doubted the Seahawks before and they turned around and bit me in the ass, but this time the road to the Super Bowl for them might be too tough.


Denver Broncos (+550)
The Broncos are probably the biggest wildcard in the playoffs right now. They get to play an extremely banged up Steelers team this week, and while their own quarterback play has been well documented, Peyton Manning is coming off some really good rest. Manning should be fresh for what could be another deep playoff run for the Broncos, but to wager on them to win the Super Bowl is not only risky, it is the definition of a gamble. You really don’t know what you’re going to get from this team, and I’m personally laying off them for safer and more valuable wagers right now.


Kansas City Chiefs (+900)
After the top five teams, there is a big drop off to the Chiefs, who will have a much harder time this week in the divisional round. While the Patriots are beatable, the combination of their offense and defense might be too much for the Chiefs who could be without some of their better skill players this week. On top of that, the Patriots will likely be getting back Julian Edelman for this game, which makes the that much tougher to stop. The Chiefs have not been good at defending wide receivers most of the season, so as long as Brady’s o-line holds up, the Chiefs as a Super Bowl contender might stop after this week.


Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)
The Steelers mounted an insane comeback against the Bengals this past week, and now they get the pleasure of going into Denver to play the Broncos. Their price is appealing to say the least, but the unknown in this game and this team make them tough to bet on. Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are all banged up, and even if one of them can’t go this week, it’s going to be much harder beating the Broncos on the road than the Bengals, who seem to choke in the playoffs every year. However, Pacman Jones says that Brown was faking injury, so if that’s true, it gives the Steelers a bit more hope.


Green Bay Packers (+1200)
Finally we reach the only real underdog I would take a chance on considering the teams that are left, and considering that I have read this story before. The Packers were the 6th seed when they won it all five years ago, and after their performance last week, it would not surprise me to see them go on a run again. Aaron Rodgers looked good for the first time in a while, and considering the price, it’s not a bad idea to take a stab at them. 

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