Dallas and San Diego are both undefeated ATS, and they face off in one of the afternoon games. While they don’t play one another very often, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, and the NFL Odds have the Cowboys as -2 ½ road favorites. The Chargers may not have one of the better teams in the NFL this season, but their offense is average and their defense plays better at home.
This is just one of the reasons why I think the Chargers are the play here. The line movement in this series has been pretty telling for me this week. After the NFL Odds opened at -1 ½ for our NFL picks, they quickly moved up a point, and now are moving back down. The market is dominated by money on the Cowboys, and I think the books have laid a perfect trap. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are due for a slump game after sandwiching their one loss in between two blow out wins this year.
Even though I doubt this will be a low scoring game, I see the Chargers covering the points. I will gladly take points with a home team with a spread of less than three points. I see a final score of 23-21 Cowboys, but don’t be surprised if the Chargers upset here.
My Pick: Chargers +2 ½ @ Heritage
Chicago travels into Detroit undefeated through three weeks, and although the Lions aren’t their toughest test to date, Detroit is still a tough divisional road game. The NFL Odds have the Bears as underdogs in this one, however Chicago has had long-term success winning SU in Detroit over the past several seasons. Even with a new coach, I see that trend continuing in 2013.
The Bears are 9-1 SU in their last ten meetings overall with the Lions, and they are 4-1 SU in the last five seasons when they travel into Detroit. Late last season the Bears beat the Lions in a close game 26-24 in Detroit, and I could see a very similar style of game in Week 4.
The Bears are 6-2 SU in their last eight road games, while the Lions are only 1-5 SU in their last six home games. As long as Jay Cutler doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bears will win this game. If Cutler can control the game, the Bears’ defense has already forced 11 turnovers through three weeks, which leads the NFL.
My Pick: Bears +3 @ Pinnacle
Miami heads into the Super Dome this week, and I think they are due for a super beat down. The Dolphins have been impressive, and I don’t doubt their playoff potential, (I am on record this summer saying I thought their price to win the East was undervalued) but the Saints are playing on another level right now.
New Orleans is 19-8 ATS since 2010 when playing in their home dome, and they are 15-4 SU in their last 19 home games. Miami is struggling on defense a little to start the season, and on top of that they haven’t been able to run the ball very effectively either. The Dolphins are giving up over 263 passing yards per game so far this season.
Andrew Luck threw for over 320 yards against them in Week 2 when they were on the road, and I think Drew Brees can get all of that and then some against the Dolphins. Lay the points with New Orleans. I’m not quite ready to trust the Dolphins on the road against powerhouse teams.
My Pick: Saints -6 ½ at bet365